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An integrated framework to analyze local decision-making and adaptive capacity to large-scale environmental change: community case studies in Brazil, the UK and the US

Grant number: 12/51876-0
Support type:Research Projects - Thematic Grants
Duration: September 01, 2013 - August 31, 2017
Field of knowledge:Interdisciplinary Subjects
Cooperation agreement: Belmont Forum
Principal Investigator:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Grantee:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Principal investigator abroad: Frank Muller Karger
Institution abroad: University of South Florida (USF), United States
Home Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Brasil). Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil
Co-Principal Investigators:Chou Sin Chan ; Lucí Hidalgo Nunes ; Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão
Associated scholarship(s):15/11035-5 - Rainfall variability modes in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: local, regional and remote connections, BP.DD
15/08192-1 - Events of hangover and high tide in Santos: updating the database produced by the Instituto Geológico, BP.IC
14/21048-4 - METROPOLE: an integrated framework to analyze local decision-making and adaptive capacity to large-scale environmental change: community case studies in Brazil, the UK and the US, BP.TT
14/14598-8 - Linking research and decision making: climate change and adaptive capacity in the city of Santos, BP.DR
13/24236-3 - A database of severe impacts caused by extreme precipitation events in the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, BP.IC


How decision makers and the public perceive and respond to potential local impacts of large-scale change, including economic and health risks, depends on social, cultural and political context and on how scientific evidence is presented. This proposal focuses on identifying the factors that facilitate a shift in knowledge, attitudes, values and decision making about local climate risks and adaptation strategies among decision-makers and stakeholders in case study communities in Brazil, United Kingdom, and the United States. The hypothesis is that risk knowledge is best understood as being coproduced by science and by the social, political and cultural context. The research will concurrently analyze social context factors that affect adaptation planning and policy changes (adaptive capacity) and responses by local stakeholders when presented with interactive computer-based scenario simulations in participatory planning meetings. The project will use: 1) state-of-the-art visualization tools developed in the US and Brazil, 2) sophisticated survey and choice evaluation tools, and 3) a risk assessment Adaptive Capacity Index developed in the UK. The visualization tools integrate scientific and economic data at the smallest level for local jurisdictions, and illustrate potential impacts, economic risk, adaptation options, and cost-benefits analyses projected over time. The data include changes in sea level, temperature, storm frequency, precipitation and other variables in the past 100 years and high resolution projections in 5-10 year increments to 2080 under the IPCC's 5th AR scenarios. Expected results include a new framework to evaluate the impact of integrating scientific, economic, and cultural context data on adaption planning and decision-making. This will improve the ability of scientists to interact with stakeholders by developing an understanding of social context, and gamer knowledge of best practices from three leading countries which may be applicable more broadly. (AU)

Articles published in Agência FAPESP about the research grant
Cost of not adapting to climate change would be at least five times higher  
Sea levels along the Brazilian coast are expected to rise in coming decades 
Paris Agreement is insufficient to brake global warming, report warns 
Measures to adapt to climate change are announced in Santos, São Paulo 
Coastal flooding in the city of Santos could cause billions in damage 
Santos, in southeastern Brazil, may become more exposed to flooding by the sea 

Scientific publications (4)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
LYRA, ANDRE; TAVARES, PRISCILA; CHOU, SIN CHAN; SUEIRO, GUSTAVO; DERECZYNSKI, CLAUDINE; SONDERMANN, MARCELY; SILVA, ADAN; MARENGO, JOSE; GIAROLLA, ANGELICA. Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 132, n. 1-2, p. 663-682, APR 2018. Web of Science Citations: 3.
MARENGO, JOSE A.; NUNES, LUCI H.; SOUZA, CELIA R. G.; HARARI, JOSEPH; MULLER-KARGER, FRANK; GRECO, ROBERTO; HOSOKAWA, EDUARDO K.; TABUCHI, ERNESTO K.; MERRILL, SAMUEL B.; REYNOLDS, CATHERINE J.; PELLING, MARK; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E.; CHOU, SIN C.; MOREIRA, FABIANO; PATERSON, SHONA; LOCKMAN, JONATHAN T.; GRAY, ALEXANDER G. A globally deployable strategy for co-development of adaptation preferences to sea-level rise: the public participation case of Santos, Brazil. NATURAL HAZARDS, v. 88, n. 1, p. 39-53, AUG 2017. Web of Science Citations: 1.
DE ALBUQUERQUE CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA FONSECA; MARENGO, JOSE A.; ALVES, LINCOLN MUNIZ; COSTA, DUARTE FILIPE. On the opposite relation between extreme precipitation over west Amazon and southeastern Brazil: observations and model simulations. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 37, n. 9, p. 3606-3618, JUL 2017. Web of Science Citations: 7.
PATERSON, SHONA K.; FELLING, MARK; NUNES, LUCI HIDALGO; MOREIRA, FABIANO DE ARAUJO; GUIDA, KRISTEN; MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO. Size does matter: City scale and the asymmetries of climate change adaptation in three coastal towns. GEOFORUM, v. 81, p. 109-119, MAY 2017. Web of Science Citations: 3.

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