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An integrated framework to analyze local decision-making and adaptive capacity to large-scale environmental change: community case studies in Brazil, the UK and the US


How decision makers and the public perceive and respond to potential local impacts of large-scale change, including economic and health risks, depends on social, cultural and political context and on how scientific evidence is presented. This proposal focuses on identifying the factors that facilitate a shift in knowledge, attitudes, values and decision making about local climate risks and adaptation strategies among decision-makers and stakeholders in case study communities in Brazil, United Kingdom, and the United States. The hypothesis is that risk knowledge is best understood as being coproduced by science and by the social, political and cultural context. The research will concurrently analyze social context factors that affect adaptation planning and policy changes (adaptive capacity) and responses by local stakeholders when presented with interactive computer-based scenario simulations in participatory planning meetings. The project will use: 1) state-of-the-art visualization tools developed in the US and Brazil, 2) sophisticated survey and choice evaluation tools, and 3) a risk assessment Adaptive Capacity Index developed in the UK. The visualization tools integrate scientific and economic data at the smallest level for local jurisdictions, and illustrate potential impacts, economic risk, adaptation options, and cost-benefits analyses projected over time. The data include changes in sea level, temperature, storm frequency, precipitation and other variables in the past 100 years and high resolution projections in 5-10 year increments to 2080 under the IPCC's 5th AR scenarios. Expected results include a new framework to evaluate the impact of integrating scientific, economic, and cultural context data on adaption planning and decision-making. This will improve the ability of scientists to interact with stakeholders by developing an understanding of social context, and gamer knowledge of best practices from three leading countries which may be applicable more broadly. (AU)

Articles published in Agência FAPESP Newsletter about the research grant:
Ferramenta permite análise integrada de dados sobre clima, ambiente e saúde 
Santos pode se tornar mais suscetível a inundações 
Santos, in southeastern Brazil, may become more exposed to flooding by the sea 
Inundações costeiras em Santos podem causar prejuízos bilionários  
La ciudad de Santos, en Brasil, puede volverse más susceptible a las inundaciones 
Coastal flooding in the city of Santos could cause billions in damage 
Inundaciones costeras en la ciudad de Santos pueden causar pérdidas multimillonarias 
Medidas de adaptação às mudanças climáticas são anunciadas em Santos 
Measures to adapt to climate change are announced in Santos, São Paulo 
Acordo de Paris é insuficiente para frear o aquecimento global, diz relatório 
Paris Agreement is insufficient to brake global warming, report warns 
El Acuerdo de París es insuficiente para frenar el calentamiento global 
Nível do mar na costa brasileira tende a aumentar nas próximas décadas 
Sea levels along the Brazilian coast are expected to rise in coming decades 
El nivel del mar en la costa brasileña tiende a aumentar en las próximas décadas 
Cost of not adapting to climate change would be at least five times higher  
La no adaptación a los cambios climáticos saldrá al menos cinco veces más cara 
Não se adaptar às mudanças climáticas sairá no mínimo cinco vezes mais caro 
Articles published in Pesquisa FAPESP Magazine about the research grant:
Metrópolis más cálidas y secas 
Hotter and drier cities 

Scientific publications (4)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
LYRA, ANDRE; TAVARES, PRISCILA; CHOU, SIN CHAN; SUEIRO, GUSTAVO; DERECZYNSKI, CLAUDINE; SONDERMANN, MARCELY; SILVA, ADAN; MARENGO, JOSE; GIAROLLA, ANGELICA. Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 132, n. 1-2, p. 663-682, APR 2018. Web of Science Citations: 5.
MARENGO, JOSE A.; NUNES, LUCI H.; SOUZA, CELIA R. G.; HARARI, JOSEPH; MULLER-KARGER, FRANK; GRECO, ROBERTO; HOSOKAWA, EDUARDO K.; TABUCHI, ERNESTO K.; MERRILL, SAMUEL B.; REYNOLDS, CATHERINE J.; PELLING, MARK; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E.; CHOU, SIN C.; MOREIRA, FABIANO; PATERSON, SHONA; LOCKMAN, JONATHAN T.; GRAY, ALEXANDER G. A globally deployable strategy for co-development of adaptation preferences to sea-level rise: the public participation case of Santos, Brazil. NATURAL HAZARDS, v. 88, n. 1, p. 39-53, AUG 2017. Web of Science Citations: 1.
DE ALBUQUERQUE CAVALCANTI, IRACEMA FONSECA; MARENGO, JOSE A.; ALVES, LINCOLN MUNIZ; COSTA, DUARTE FILIPE. On the opposite relation between extreme precipitation over west Amazon and southeastern Brazil: observations and model simulations. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 37, n. 9, p. 3606-3618, JUL 2017. Web of Science Citations: 8.
PATERSON, SHONA K.; FELLING, MARK; NUNES, LUCI HIDALGO; MOREIRA, FABIANO DE ARAUJO; GUIDA, KRISTEN; MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO. Size does matter: City scale and the asymmetries of climate change adaptation in three coastal towns. GEOFORUM, v. 81, p. 109-119, MAY 2017. Web of Science Citations: 9.

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