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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

El Nino, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Coral Bleaching in the South Atlantic: A Chain of Events Modeled With a Bayesian Approach

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Author(s):
Lisboa, D. S. [1, 2] ; Kikuchi, R. K. P. [1] ; Leao, Zelinda M. A. N. [1]
Total Authors: 3
Affiliation:
[1] Fed Univ Bahia UFBA, Coral Reef & Global Climate Change Res Grp, Salvador, BA - Brazil
[2] Fed Univ Bahia UFBA, Postgrad Program Geol, Salvador, BA - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 2
Document type: Journal article
Source: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS; v. 123, n. 4, p. 2554-2569, APR 2018.
Web of Science Citations: 0
Abstract

Coral bleaching represents one of the main climate-change related threats to reef ecosystems. This research represents a methodological alternative for modeling this phenomenon, focused on assessing uncertainties and complexities with a low number of observations. To develop this model, intermittent reef monitoring data from the largest reef complex in the South Atlantic collected over nine summers between 2000 and 2014 were used with remote sensing data to construct and train a bleaching seasonal prediction model. The Bayesian approach was used to construct the network as it is suitable for hierarchically organizing local thermal variables and combining them with El Nino indicators from the preceding winter to generate accurate bleaching predictions for the coming season. Network count information from six environmental indicators was used to calculate the probability of bleaching, which is mainly influenced by the combined information of two thermal indices; one thermal index is designed to track short period anomalies in the early summer that are capable of triggering bleaching (SST of five consecutive days), and the other index is responsible for tracking the accumulation of thermal stress over time, an index called degree heating trimester (DHT). In addition to developing the network, this study conducted the three tests of applicability proposed for model: 1- Perform the forecast of coral bleaching for the summer of 2016; 2- Investigate the role of turbidity during the bleaching episodes; and 3- Use the model information to identify areas with a lower predisposition to bleaching events. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 08/57719-9 - Program on Climate Change - INCT CLIMA
Grantee:Carlos Afonso Nobre
Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants