Global predation pressure redistribution under future climate change

Author(s)

Romero, Gustavo Q. ^[1] ; Goncalves-Souza, Thiago ^[2] ; Kratina, Pavel ^[3] ; Marino, Nicholas A. C. ^[4] ; Petry, William K. ^[5] ; Sobral-Souza, Thadeu ^[6] ; Roslin, Tomas ^{[7, 8]}

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Biol, Dept Anim Biol, Lab Multitroph Interact & Biodivers, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Fed Rural Pernambuco, Dept Biol, Lab Ecol Synth & Biodivers Conservat, Recife, PE - Brazil

^[3] Queen Mary Univ London, Sch Biol & Chem Sci, London - England

^[4] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Inst Biol, Dept Ecol, Ctr Ciencias Saude, Lab Limnol, Rio De Janeiro - Brazil

^[5] Eidgenoss Tech Hsch Zurich, Inst Integrat Biol, Zurich - Switzerland

^[6] Univ Estadual Paulista, Biosci Inst, Dept Ecol, Spatial Ecol & Conservat Lab, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[7] Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Ecol, Spatial Foodweb Ecol Grp, Uppsala - Sweden

^[8] Univ Helsinki, Dept Agr Sci, Spatial Foodweb Ecol Grp, Helsinki - Finland

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE; v. 8, n. 12, p. 1087+, DEC 2018.
• Web of Science Citations: 3

Abstract

How climate affects biotic interactions is a question of urgent concern(1-3). Theory predicts that biotic interactions are stronger at lower latitudes(4-6). However, the role of climate in governing these patterns is typically assumed, rather than explicitly tested. Here, we dissected the influence of climatic descriptors on predation pressure using data from a global experiment with model caterpillars. We then used projections of future climate change to predict shifts in predation pressure. Climate, particularly components of temperature, explained latitudinal and elevational patterns of predation better than latitude or elevation by themselves. Projected predation pressure was greater under higher temperatures and more stable climates. Increased climatic instability projected for the near future predicts a general decrease in predation pressure over time. By identifying the current climatic drivers of global patterns in a key biotic interaction, we show how shifts in these drivers could alter the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and their associated services. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 16/01209-9 - Effects of climate change on the structure of food webs in latitudinal gradients
• Grantee: Gustavo Quevedo Romero
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research