Ridership Estimation Along Bus Transit Lines Based on Kriging: Comparative Analysis Between Network and Euclidean Distances

Author(s)

Marques, Samuel de Franca ^[1] ; Pitombo, Cira Souza ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Carlos Sch Engn, Dept Transportat Engn, Sao Carlos - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: JOURNAL OF GEOVISUALIZATION AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS; v. 5, n. 1 JUN 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 1

Abstract

The classical travel demand modelling overlooks an important factor normally found in the interest variables: spatial autocorrelation. Recent research recognises and includes this characteristic in travel demand forecasting, but there are limitations regarding the basic aggregation spatial units used in the approaches, for example, the modifiable areal unit problem, error variance, and high randomness. In order to overcome these problems, the present study relied on spatial dependence between boarding and alighting observations, per bus stop, and loading on sections, along a public transport line, to calculate estimates of these variables in stops and sections that would not be sampled during the passenger boarding and alighting survey. This estimation was made by applying ordinary kriging with Euclidean distances to two bus lines in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Afterwards, this method was compared to the estimates obtained using network distances along the same bus lines. The results, from cross-validation, showed a considerable adjustment of the estimated values to those observed for both types of distances. Thus, this article presents two main contributions. The first one is related to applying geostatistics to public transport demand data, which overcomes constraints found in previous studies. The last one is a practical contribution, considering the support to public transport planning provided by the kriging continuous surface of estimated values, since it covers points that lacks the observed boarding, alighting, and loading information. This last contribution is also related to possible resource savings of boarding/alighting survey, especially in cities where automatic counters are not available. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 19/12054-4 - Travel demand modeling in a bus transit network: an approach based on geostatistics
• Grantee: Samuel de França Marques
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 13/25035-1 - Incorporation of kriging in modal choice models
• Grantee: Cira Souza Pitombo
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants