Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s)

de Souza Conceicao, Gleice Margarete ^[1] ; Barbosa, Gerson Laurindo ^[2] ; Lorenz, Camila ^[1] ; Dias Bocewicz, Ana Carolina ^[3] ; Reis Santana, Lidia Maria ^{[4, 5]} ; de Azevedo Marques, Cristiano Correa ^[2] ; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Sao Paulo State Dept Hlth, Endem Control Superintendence SUCEN, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[3] Dis Control Coordinat CCD SES SP, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[4] Fed Univ Sao Paulo UNIFESP, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[5] Sao Paulo State Dept Hlth CVE SES SP, Epidemiol Surveillance Ctr Prof Alexandre Vranjac, Sao Paulo - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE; v. 44, NOV-DEC 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

Background: Studies have shown that human mobility is an important factor in dengue epidemiology. Changes in mobility resulting from COVID-19 pandemic set up a real-life situation to test this hypothesis. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of reduced mobility due to this pandemic in the occurrence of dengue in the state of Sa tilde o Paulo, Brazil. Method: It is an ecological study of time series, developed between January and August 2020. We use the number of confirmed dengue cases and residential mobility, on a daily basis, from secondary information sources. Mobility was represented by the daily percentage variation of residential population isolation, obtained from the Google database. We modeled the relationship between dengue occurrence and social distancing by negative binomial regression, adjusted for seasonality. We represent the social distancing dichotomously (isolation versus no isolation) and consider lag for isolation from the dates of occurrence of dengue. Results: The risk of dengue decreased around 9.1% (95% CI: 14.2 to 3.7) in the presence of isolation, considering a delay of 20 days between the degree of isolation and the dengue first symptoms. Conclusions: We have shown that mobility can play an important role in the epidemiology of dengue and should be considered in surveillance and control activities. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 17/10297-1 - Identification of risk areas for arboviruses using traps for adults of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and remote sensing images
• Grantee: Camila Lorenz
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral