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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Forecasting Conditional Covariance Matrices in High-Dimensional Time Series: A General Dynamic Factor Approach

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Author(s):
Trucios, Carlos [1, 2] ; Mazzeu, Joao H. G. [3] ; Hallin, Marc [4, 5] ; Hotta, Luiz K. [3] ; Valls Pereira, Pedro L. [2] ; Zevallos, Mauricio [3]
Total Authors: 6
Affiliation:
[1] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Fac Business Adm & Accounting, Rio De Janeiro - Brazil
[2] Sao Paulo Sch Econ, FGV, Sao Paulo - Brazil
[3] Univ Estadual Campinas, Dept Stat, Sao Paulo - Brazil
[4] Univ Libre Bruxelles, Dept Math, Brussels - Belgium
[5] Univ Libre Bruxelles, ECARES, Brussels - Belgium
Total Affiliations: 5
Document type: Journal article
Source: JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS; DEC 2021.
Web of Science Citations: 0
Abstract

Based on a General Dynamic Factor Model with infinite-dimensional factor space and MGARCH volatility models, we develop new estimation and forecasting procedures for conditional covariance matrices in high-dimensional time series. The finite-sample performance of our approach is evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments and outperforms the most alternative methods. This new approach is also used to construct minimum one-step-ahead variance portfolios for a high-dimensional panel of assets. The results are shown to match the results of recent proposals by Engle, Ledoit, and Wolf and achieve better out-of-sample portfolio performance than alternative procedures proposed in the literature. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 18/04654-9 - Time series, wavelets and high dimensional data
Grantee:Pedro Alberto Morettin
Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 16/18599-4 - Modeling and forecasting volatility of high dimensional financial series
Grantee:Carlos Cesar Trucios Maza
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
FAPESP's process: 18/03012-3 - Robust dynamic dimension reduction techniques for volatilities
Grantee:Carlos Cesar Trucios Maza
Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor