Urban climate change: A statistical analysis for Sao Paulo

Author(s)

Valente, Fernanda ; Laurini, Marcio

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: URBAN CLIMATE; v. 41, p. 18-pg., 2022-01-01.

Abstract

In this paper we propose novel statistical decompositions of climatic time series into long-term trend, seasonal and cycle components to analyze the existence of changes in rainfall and tem-perature patterns. The main contribution is the generalization of these decompositions to extreme values, probability of rain and the duration of dry days. We apply these methods for the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. This region is characterized by a rapid urbanization process and a high population density, which is related to increased danger and vulnerability to hydrome-teorological hazards. We analyzed daily series of temperature and precipitation between 1933 and 2019 from Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences of University of Sao Paulo (IAG-USP) and the results indicate a significant increase in the trend component of daily temperature and in the rain patterns. In addition, the analysis for annual temperature records and annual records of daily rainfall show support for the hypothesis of permanent changes in observed climatic patterns. On the other hand, there is no significant evidence of changes in the pattern of duration of dry days nor changes in the trend component for the annual maximum of dry days, indicating the stability of this component. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/04654-9 - Time series, wavelets and high dimensional data
• Grantee: Pedro Alberto Morettin
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants