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On the ergodicity assumption in Performance-Based engineering

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Author(s):
Beck, Andre T. ; Bosse, Rubia Mara ; Rodrigues, Isabela Durci
Total Authors: 3
Document type: Journal article
Source: STRUCTURAL SAFETY; v. 97, p. 8-pg., 2022-03-28.
Abstract

In the Performance-Based Engineering (PBE) framework, uncertainties in system parameters, or modelling uncertainties, have been shown to have significant effects on capacity fragilities and annual collapse rates of buildings. Yet, since modelling uncertainties are non-ergodic variables, their consideration in failure rate calculations offends the Poisson assumption of independent crossings. This problem has been addressed in the literature, and errors found negligible for small annual collapse failure rates. However, the errors could be significant for serviceability limit states, and when failure rates are integrated in time, to provide lifetime failure probabilities. Herein, we present a novel formulation to fully avoid the error in integration of non-ergodic variables. The proposed product-of-lognormals formulation is fully compatible with popular fragility modelling approaches in PBE context. Moreover, we address collapse limit states of realistic reinforced concrete buildings, and find errors of the order of 5 to 8% for 50-year lifetimes, up to 14% for 100 years. Computation of accurate lifetime failure probabilities in a PBE context is clearly important, as it allows comparison with lifetime target reliability values for other structural analysis formulations. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 20/14072-7 - Performance-based optimization of RC structures subject to seismic actions
Grantee:Isabela Durci Rodrigues
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
FAPESP's process: 19/13080-9 - Optimal reliability-based design of structural systems considering progressive collapse
Grantee:André Teófilo Beck
Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants