Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land-cover changes

Author(s)

Portela, Rita de Cassia Quitete ; Tourinho, Luara ; dos Santos, Thamyris Viana ; Vale, Mariana M.

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Biotropica; v. N/A, p. 10-pg., 2023-09-08.

Abstract

Ongoing climate change has caused well-documented displacements of species' geographic distribution to newly climatically suitable areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) are widely used to project such climate-induced changes but typically ignore species' interspecific interactions that might facilitate or prevent its establishment in new areas. Here, we projected the change in the distribution of Jucara Palm (Euterpe edulis Mart., Arecaceae), a neotropical threatened palm, taking into consideration its ecological interactions. We run ENMs of E. edulis, plus its known seed dispersers (15 bird species) and predators (19 birds and mammals) under current and future climatic conditions. Additionally, for E. edulis, we removed deforested areas from the model. When considering only climate, climate change has a positive impact on E. edulis, with a predicted westward expansion and a modest southward contraction, with a 26% net gain in distribution by 2060. When removing deforested areas, however, climate change harms E. edulis, with a 66% predicted net distribution loss. Within the palm's distribution in this more realistic model, there is also a predicted reduction in the richness of its dispersers and predators. We conclude that the possible benefits of climate change to E. edulis' distribution are overshadowed by widespread habitat loss, and that global change is likely to disrupt some of its ecological interactions. The outcome of the interplay between the negative impact of the loss of dispersers, and the benefit of the loss of predators, is unclear, but the large contraction of E. edulis' range predicted here foresees a dim future for the species.Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material. As mudancas climaticas em curso causaram deslocamentos bem documentados na distribuicao geografica das especies para novas areas climaticamente mais adequadas. Os modelos de nicho ecologico (MNE) sao amplamente utilizados para projetar tais mudancas induzidas pelo clima, mas geralmente ignoram as interacoes interespecificas das especies que podem facilitar ou impedir seu estabelecimento em novas areas. Aqui, projetamos a mudanca na distribuicao da palmeira Jucara (Euterpe edulis Mart., Arecaceae), uma palmeira neotropical ameacada, levando em consideracao suas interacoes ecologicas. Executamos MNEs de E. edulis, seus dispersores de sementes (15 especies de aves) e predadores de sementes (19 aves e mamiferos) sob condicoes climaticas atuais e futuras. Adicionalmente, para E. edulis, removemos areas desmatadas do modelo. Considerando apenas o clima, as mudancas climaticas impactam positivamente E. edulis, com previsao de expansao para o oeste e modesta contracao para o sul, com ganho liquido de 26% na distribuicao ate 2060. Ao remover areas desmatadas, as mudancas climaticas tem um impacto negativo em E. edulis, com uma perda de distribuicao liquida prevista de 66%. Dentro da distribuicao da palmeira neste modelo mais realista, tambem ha uma reducao prevista na riqueza de seus dispersores e predadores. Concluimos que os possiveis beneficios da mudanca climatica para a distribuicao de E. edulis sao ofuscados pela perda generalizada de habitat e que as mudancas climaticas provavelmente interromperao algumas de suas interacoes ecologicas. O resultado da interacao entre o impacto negativo da perda de dispersores e o beneficio da perda de predadores nao e claro, mas a grande contracao da distribuicao de E. edulis aqui prevista preve um futuro sombrio para a especie. In the future, any positive impact of future climate change on E. edulis predicted in our study is overshadowed by predicted loss of vegetation cover and a reduction in seed disperser richness. At the same time, concomitant reduction in seed predators might be beneficial to E. edulis. The outcome of the interplay between these two opposing forces is unclear, but the large predicted contraction of E. edulis' range foresees a dim future for the species.image (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 22/07192-1 - Modeling future scenarios for pollination and associated ecosystem services in face of landscape and climate changes
• Grantee: Luara Tourinho de Oliveira Pereira
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral