Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement

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Gatti, Luciana V. ; Cunha, Camilla L. ; Marani, Luciano ; Cassol, Henrique L. G. ; Messias, Cassiano Gustavo ; Arai, Egidio ; Denning, A. Scott ; Soler, Luciana S. ; Almeida, Claudio ; Setzer, Alberto ; Domingues, Lucas Gatti ; Basso, Luana S. ; Miller, John B. ; Gloor, Manuel ; Correia, Caio S. C. ; Tejada, Graciela ; Neves, Raiane A. L. ; Rajao, Raoni ; Nunes, Felipe ; Filho, Britaldo S. S. ; Schmitt, Jair ; Nobre, Carlos ; Correa, Sergio M. ; Sanches, Alber H. ; Aragao, Luiz E. O. C. ; Anderson, Liana ; Von Randow, Celso ; Crispim, Stephane P. ; Silva, Francine M. ; Machado, Guilherme B. M.

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Nature; v. 621, n. 7978, p. 23-pg., 2023-08-23.

Abstract

The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change(1-4). Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles(5,6), deforestation(7) and fire data(8), as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation(9). We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 +/- 0.08 PgC year(-1) in 2010-2018 to 0.44 +/- 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2019 and 0.52 +/- 0.10 PgC year(-1) in 2020 (+/- uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Nino (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 20102018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 16/02018-2 - Interannual variation of Amazon Basin greenhouse gas balances and their controls in a warming and increasingly variable climate – Carbam: the Amazon carbon balance long-term study
• Grantee: Luciana Vanni Gatti
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 18/14006-4 - Estimation of Amazon Greenhouse Gas balances from atmospheric concentrations using inverse modelling of atmospheric transport
• Grantee: Luana Santamaria Basso
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 11/51841-0 - UK/Brazil research network for an Amazonian Carbon Observatory
• Grantee: Luciana Vanni Gatti
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Regular Grants
• FAPESP's process: 18/18493-7 - Correlation between greenhouse gases, natural processes and land use in the Amazon Basin region
• Grantee: Graciela Tejada Pinell
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 21/09020-0 - Multivariate statistical treatment of data and modeling for forecasting future scenarios in the Amazon
• Grantee: Camilla Lima Cunha
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Technical Training Program - Technical Training
• FAPESP's process: 19/21789-8 - The use of multivariate techniques and neural network predictions to the greenhouse gases database, climate parameters and biomass burning at Amazon
• Grantee: Luciana Vanni Gatti
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Visiting Researcher Grant - Brazil
• FAPESP's process: 18/14423-4 - Modeling a decade of carbon gross emissions from forest fires in the Amazon: Conciliating the bottom-up and top-down views of the problem
• Grantee: Henrique Luis Godinho Cassol
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 08/58120-3 - Carbon tracker and water availability controls of land use and climate changes
• Grantee: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 11/17914-0 - Determination of Methane Emissions in the Amazon Basin
• Grantee: Luana Santamaria Basso
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate