Interannual variation of Amazon Basin greenhouse gas balances and their controls in a warming and increasingly variable climate – Carbam: the Amazon carbon balance long-term study

• Grant number: 16/02018-2
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• Duration: September 01, 2017 - August 31, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Luciana Vanni Gatti
• Grantee: Luciana Vanni Gatti
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil
• Pesquisadores principais: Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão
• Associated researchers: Allan Scott Denning ; Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar ; Carlos Augusto Bauer Aquino ; Caroline Bentley Alden ; Celso von Randow ; Christiane Silvestrini de Morais ; Demerval Soares Moreira ; Egidio Arai ; Elliot Campbell ; Emanuel Gloor ; Graciela Tejada Pinell ; Henrique Luis Godinho Cassol ; Ingrid Theodora van der Laan-Luijkx ; Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto ; John Bharat Miller ; John Michael Melack ; Jonathan Barichivich ; Joseph Andrew Berry ; Jost Valentin Lavric ; Kenia Teodoro Wiedemann ; Liana Oighenstein Anderson ; Luana Santamaria Basso ; Luciano Marani ; Oliver Lawrence Phillips ; Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes ; Paulo Nobre ; Plínio Carlos Alvalá ; Saulo Ribeiro de Freitas ; Sérgio Machado Corrêa ; Steven Charles Wofsy ; Wouter Peters
• Associated grant(s): 19/21789-8 - The use of multivariate techniques and neural network predictions to the greenhouse gases database, climate parameters and biomass burning at Amazon, AV.BR
• Associated scholarship(s): 21/09020-0 - Multivariate statistical treatment of data and modeling for forecasting future scenarios in the Amazon, BP.TT; 21/08178-0 - Scientific journalism: scientific dissemination of the Amazon's role in global change, BP.JC; 19/25701-8 - The influence of land use and land cover on fine particulate matter (PM2.5µm) emissions from fire in Amazonia and Cerrado biomes integrating modelling and remote sensing, BP.PD; + associated scholarships 20/04736-5 - Scientific journalism: scientific dissemination of Amazon's role in global climate change, BP.JC; 20/05108-8 - High-precision, high-accuracy greenhouse concentration analyses training, BP.TT; 18/14423-4 - Modeling a decade of carbon gross emissions from forest fires in the Amazon: Conciliating the bottom-up and top-down views of the problem, BP.PD; 18/18493-7 - Correlation between greenhouse gases, natural processes and land use in the Amazon Basin region, BP.PD; 18/14006-4 - Estimation of Amazon Greenhouse Gas balances from atmospheric concentrations using inverse modelling of atmospheric transport, BP.PD - associated scholarships

Abstract

The main propose is to determine the fate of the carbon sink and methane source of the Amazon Basin in a period during which the Basin is likely to experience a warming and increasingly variable climate, as well as increasing direct human pressure. This will be done primarily by regularly measuring vertical profiles of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations over the Basin. Our previous work, published recently in Nature (Gatti et al. 2014), demonstrated that the Amazonian carbon balance is sensitive to dry versus wet years. The limited period covered by our data does, however, not yet permit to tell us what the Amazon Basin carbon balance will be in the decades to come. Our proposed strategy is therefore to continue the proven method of regular basin-wide vertical profile greenhouse gas measurements to complete one decade, and expand it with important new capabilities. First, we will add COS and 13CO2, to our existing suite of measured gases, which will permit an improved understanding of unusually dry and hot conditions on forest functioning. Furthermore we propose to complement the vertical bi-weekly profile sampling with continuous greenhouse gas measurements at three intermediate to tall towers (65 and 310 m). Data analysis will rely on two high resolution regional models and two global models, state of the art land vegetation models to simulate CO2, COS and 13CO2, and three state-of-the-art inverse modeling approaches (Lagrangian, 4D-variational, and ensemble based) available via the participating partners. Together, these multiple approaches will give us a realistic assessment of the uncertainties of our Amazon Basin greenhouse balance estimates, as well as their trends and controls in a warming world and thereby an assessment of state and changes of the Amazon forests. (AU)

Scientific publications

(26)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; SILVA, ALINDOMAR L.; ALMEIDA, CATHERINE T.; DALAGNOL, RICARDO; PLETSCH, MIKHAELA A. J. S.; PENHA, THALES V.; PALOSCHI, RENNAN A.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. Fire Responses to the 2010 and 2015/2016 Amazonian Droughts. Frontiers in Earth Science, v. 7, MAY 15 2019. (17/15257-8, 16/02018-2, 15/22987-7)

MATAVELI, GUILHERME A. V.; PEREIRA, GABRIEL; DE OLIVEIRA, GABRIEL; SEIXAS, HUGO T.; CARDOZO, FRANCIELLE DA S.; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; KAWAKUBO, FERNANDO S.; BRUNSELL, NATHANIEL A.. 2020 Pantanal's widespread fire: short- and long-term implications for biodiversity and conservation. BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION, v. 30, n. 11, JUL 2021. (19/25701-8, 16/02018-2)

SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; PESSOA, ANA C. M.; CARVALHO, NATHALIA S.; REIS, JOAO B. C.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION, DEC 2020. (16/02018-2, 19/05440-5)

PESSOA, ANA CAROLINA M.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; CARVALHO, NATHALIA S.; CAMPANHARO, WESLEY A.; SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; ROSAN, THAIS M.; REIS, JOAO B. C.; PEREIRA, FRANCISCA R. S.; ASSIS, MAURO; JACON, ALINE D.; et al. Intercomparison of Burned Area Products and Its Implication for Carbon Emission Estimations in the Amazon. REMOTE SENSING, v. 12, n. 23, DEC 2020. (19/05440-5, 16/02018-2)

BURTON, CHANTELLE; BETTS, RICHARD A.; JONES, CHRIS D.; FELDPAUSCH, TED R.; CARDOSO, MANOEL; ANDERSON, LIANA O.. El Nino Driven Changes in Global Fire 2015/16. Frontiers in Earth Science, v. 8, JUN 10 2020. (16/02018-2, 15/50122-0)

MATAVELI, GUILHERME A. V.; CHAVES, MICHEL E. D.; BRUNSELL, NATHANIEL A.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. The emergence of a new deforestation hotspot in Amazonia. PERSPECTIVES IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, v. 19, n. 1, p. 33-36, JAN-MAR 2021. (16/02018-2, 19/25701-8)

BASSO, LUANA S.; MARANI, LUCIANO; GATTI, V, LUCIANA; MILLER, JOHN B.; GLOOR, MANUEL; MELACK, JOHN; CASSOL, HENRIQUE L. G.; TEJADA, GRACIELA; DOMINGUES, LUCAS G.; ARAI, EGIDIO; et al. Amazon methane budget derived from multi-year airborne observations highlights regional variations in emissions. COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT, v. 2, n. 1, NOV 29 2021. (08/58120-3, 20/02656-4, 18/14423-4, 11/51841-0, 19/23654-2, 18/14006-4, 16/02018-2, 19/21789-8, 11/17914-0, 18/18493-7)

CARVALHO, NATHALIA S.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; NUNES, CASSIO A.; PESSOA, ANA C. M.; SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; REIS, JOAO B. C.; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; BERENGUER, ERIKA; BARLOW, JOS; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. Spatio-temporal variation in dry season determines the Amazonian fire calendar. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, v. 16, n. 12, DEC 2021. (16/02018-2, 20/08916-8)

DOMINGUES, LUCAS GATTI; GATTI, LUCIANA VANNI; AQUINO, AFONSO; SANCHEZ, ALBER; CORREIA, CAIO; GLOOR, MANUEL; PETERS, WOUTER; MILLER, JOHN; TURNBULL, JOCELYN; SANTANA, RICARDO; et al. A New Background Method for Greenhouse Gases Flux Calculation Based in Back-Trajectories Over the Amazon. ATMOSPHERE, v. 11, n. 7, JUL 2020. (18/14423-4, 16/02018-2)

CASSOL, HENRIQUE L. G.; DOMINGUES, LUCAS G.; SANCHEZ, ALBER H.; BASSO, LUANA S.; MARANI, LUCIANO; TEJADA, GRACIELA; ARAI, EGIDIO; CORREIA, CAIO; ALDEN, CAROLINE B.; MILLER, JOHN B.; et al. Determination of Region of Influence Obtained by Aircraft Vertical Profiles Using the Density of Trajectories from the HYSPLIT Model. ATMOSPHERE, v. 11, n. 10, OCT 2020. (16/02018-2, 18/14006-4, 18/14423-4, 18/18493-7)

BERENGUER, ERIKA; CARVALHO, NATHALIA; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.; FRANCA, FILIPE; BARLOW, JOS. Improving the spatial-temporal analysis of Amazonian fires. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, v. 27, n. 3, NOV 2020. (18/15001-6, 16/02018-2)

HEINRICH, VIOLA H. A.; DALAGNOL, RICARDO; CASSOL, HENRIQUE L. G.; ROSAN, THAIS M.; DE ALMEIDA, CATHERINE TORRES; SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; CAMPANHARO, WESLEY A.; HOUSE, JOANNA I.; SITCH, STEPHEN; HALES, TRISTRAM C.; et al. Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v. 12, n. 1, MAR 19 2021. (19/21662-8, 18/14423-4, 18/15001-6, 16/02018-2, 19/05440-5)

MATAVELI, GUILHERME A. V.; DE OLIVEIRA, GABRIEL; SEIXAS, HUGO T.; PEREIRA, GABRIEL; STARK, SCOTT C.; GATTI, LUCIANA V.; BASSO, LUANA S.; TEJADA, GRACIELA; CASSOL, HENRIQUE L. G.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; et al. Relationship between Biomass Burning Emissions and Deforestation in Amazonia over the Last Two Decades. FORESTS, v. 12, n. 9, SEP 2021. (20/02656-4, 18/14006-4, 16/02018-2, 18/18493-7, 20/08916-8, 19/25701-8, 18/14423-4, 19/23654-2)

SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; FONSECA, MARISA G.; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; VANCUTSEM, CHRISTELLE; ACHARD, FREDERIC; BEUCHLE, RENE; NUMATA, IZAYA; SILVA, CARLOS A.; et al. Persistent collapse of biomass in Amazonian forest edges following deforestation leads to unaccounted carbon losses. SCIENCE ADVANCES, v. 6, n. 40, SEP 2020. (16/02018-2)

LIANA ANDERSON; VICTOR MARCHEZINI. Mudanças na exposição da população à fumaça gerada por incêndios florestais na Amazônia: o que dizem os dados sobre desastres e qualidade do ar?. Saúde debate, v. 44, p. 284-302, 2021-07-05. (16/02018-2, 18/06093-4, 19/05440-5)

SILVEIRA, MARCUS V. F.; PETRI, CAIO A.; BROGGIO, IGOR S.; CHAGAS, GABRIEL O.; MACUL, MATEUS S.; LEITE, CANDIDA C. S. S.; FERRARI, EDSON M. M.; AMIM, CAROLINA G. V.; FREITAS, ANA L. R.; MOTTA, ALLINE Z. V.; et al. Drivers of Fire Anomalies in the Brazilian Amazon: Lessons Learned from the 2019 Fire Crisis. LAND, v. 9, n. 12, DEC 2020. (19/05440-5, 16/02018-2)

SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; HEINRICH, VIOLA H. A.; FREIRE, ANA T. G.; BROGGIO, IGOR S.; ROSAN, THAIS M.; DOBLAS, JUAN; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; ROUSSEAU, GUILLAUME X.; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; SILVA, CARLOS A.; et al. Benchmark maps of 33 years of secondary forest age for Brazil. SCIENTIFIC DATA, v. 7, n. 1, AUG 14 2020. (18/15001-6, 16/02018-2)

PEREIRA, GABRIEL; RAMOS, RAQUEL DE CASSIA; ROCHA, LEONARDO CRISTIAN; BRUNSELL, NATHANIEL ALAN; MERINO, EDER RENATO; MATAVELI, GUILHERME AUGUSTO VEROLA; CARDOZO, FRANCIELLE DA SILVA. Rainfall patterns and geomorphological controls driving inundation frequency in tropical wetlands: How does the Pantanal flood?. PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, v. 45, n. 5, p. 669-686, OCT 2021. (16/02018-2, 19/25701-8)

DE OLIVEIRA, GABRIEL; BRUNSELL, NATHANIEL A.; CHEN, JING M.; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; MATAVELI, V, GUILHERME A.; DOS SANTOS, CARLOS A. C.; STARK, SCOTT C.; DE LIMA, ANDRE; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. Legacy Effects Following Fire on Surface Energy, Water and Carbon Fluxes in Mature Amazonian Forests. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES, v. 126, n. 5, MAY 2021. (16/02018-2, 19/25701-8)

SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; CARVALHO, NATHALIA S.; PESSOA, ANA C. M.; REIS, JOAO B. C.; PONTES-LOPES, ALINE; DOBLAS, JUAN; HEINRICH, VIOLA; CAMPANHARO, WESLEY; ALENCAR, ANE; SILVA, CAMILA; et al. Amazonian forest degradation must be incorporated into the COP26 agenda. NATURE GEOSCIENCE, v. 14, n. 9, p. 634-635, SEP 2021. (19/05440-5, 16/21043-8, 16/02018-2, 15/02537-7, 18/14423-4)

COSTA, LIDIANE CRISTINA; DO AMARAL CUNHA, ANA PAULA MARTINS; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; CUNNINGHAM, CHRISTOPHER. New approach for drought assessment: A case study in the northern region of Minas Gerais. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION, v. 53, FEB 1 2021. (16/02018-2)

PEREIRA, GABRIEL; RAMOS, RAQUEL DE CASSIA; ROCHA, LEONARDO CRISTIAN; BRUNSELL, NATHANIEL ALAN; MERINO, EDER RENATO; MATAVELI, GUILHERME AUGUSTO VEROLA; CARDOZO, FRANCIELLE DA SILVA. Rainfall patterns and geomorphological controls driving inundation frequency in tropical wetlands: How does the Pantanal flood?. PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, FEB 2021. (16/02018-2, 19/25701-8)

CONCEICAO, V, KATYANNE; CHAVES, MICHEL E. D.; PICOLI, MICHELLE C. A.; SANCHEZ, ALBER H.; SOARES, ANDERSON R.; MATAVELI, V, GUILHERME A.; SILVA, DANIEL E.; COSTA, JOELMA S.; CAMARA, GILBERTO. Government policies endanger the indigenous peoples of the Brazilian Amazon. LAND USE POLICY, v. 108, SEP 2021. (16/02018-2, 19/25701-8)

CAMPANHARO, WESLEY A.; LOPES, ALINE P.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; DA SILVA, THIAGO F. M. R.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. Translating Fire Impacts in Southwestern Amazonia into Economic Costs. REMOTE SENSING, v. 11, n. 7, APR 1 2019. (16/21043-8, 16/02018-2)

FONSECA, MARISA GESTEIRA; ALVES, LINCOLN MUNIZ; DUTRA AGUIAR, ANA PAULA; ARAI, EGIDIO; ANDERSON, LIANA OIGHENSTEIN; ROSAN, THAIS MICHELE; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO EDEMIR; OLIVEIRA E CRUZ DE ARAGAO, LUIZ EDUARDO. Effects of climate and land-use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, v. 25, n. 9, JULY 2019. (16/02018-2)

DE MOURA, YHASMIN MENDES. Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, v. 373, n. 1760, NOV 19 2018. (16/17652-9, 15/22987-7, 16/02018-2, 15/50484-0, 17/15257-8)