Abstract
The main propose is to determine the fate of the carbon sink and methane source of the Amazon Basin in a period during which the Basin is likely to experience a warming and increasingly variable climate, as well as increasing direct human pressure. This will be done primarily by regularly measuring vertical profiles of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations over the Basin. Our previous work, published recently in Nature (Gatti et al. 2014), demonstrated that the Amazonian carbon balance is sensitive to dry versus wet years. The limited period covered by our data does, however, not yet permit to tell us what the Amazon Basin carbon balance will be in the decades to come. Our proposed strategy is therefore to continue the proven method of regular basin-wide vertical profile greenhouse gas measurements to complete one decade, and expand it with important new capabilities. First, we will add COS and 13CO2, to our existing suite of measured gases, which will permit an improved understanding of unusually dry and hot conditions on forest functioning. Furthermore we propose to complement the vertical bi-weekly profile sampling with continuous greenhouse gas measurements at three intermediate to tall towers (65 and 310 m). Data analysis will rely on two high resolution regional models and two global models, state of the art land vegetation models to simulate CO2, COS and 13CO2, and three state-of-the-art inverse modeling approaches (Lagrangian, 4D-variational, and ensemble based) available via the participating partners. Together, these multiple approaches will give us a realistic assessment of the uncertainties of our Amazon Basin greenhouse balance estimates, as well as their trends and controls in a warming world and thereby an assessment of state and changes of the Amazon forests. (AU)
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