Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

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Pavlovic, Tomislav ; Azevedo, Flavio ; De, Koustav ; Riano-Moreno, Julian C. ; Maglic, Marina ; Gkinopoulos, Theofilos ; Donnelly-Kehoe, Patricio Andreas ; Payan-Gomez, Cesar ; Huang, Guanxiong ; Kantorowicz, Jaroslaw ; Birtel, Michele D. ; Schonegger, Philipp ; Capraro, Valerio ; Santamaria-Garcia, Hernando ; Yucel, Meltem ; Ibanez, Agustin ; Rathje, Steve ; Wetter, Erik ; Stanojevic, Dragan ; van Prooijen, Jan-Willem ; Hesse, Eugenia ; Elbaek, Christian T. ; Franc, Renata ; Pavlovic, Zoran ; Mitkidis, Panagiotis ; Cichocka, Aleksandra ; Gelfand, Michele ; Alfano, Mark ; Ross, Robert M. ; Sjastad, Hallgeir ; Nezlek, John B. ; Cislak, Aleksandra ; Lockwood, Patricia ; Abts, Koen ; Agadullina, Elena ; Amodio, David M. ; Apps, Matthew A. J. ; Aruta, John Jamir Benzon ; Besharati, Sahba ; Bor, Alexander ; Choma, Becky ; Cunningham, William ; Ejaz, Waqas ; Farmer, Harry ; Findor, Andrej ; Gjoneska, Biljana ; Gualda, Estrella ; Huynh, Toan L. D. ; Imran, Mostak Ahamed ; Israelashvili, Jacob ; Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, Elena ; Krouwel, Andre ; Kutiyski, Yordan ; Laakasuo, Michael ; Lamm, Claus ; Levy, Jonathan ; Leygue, Caroline ; Lin, Ming-Jen ; Mansoor, Mohammad Sabbir ; Marie, Antoine ; Mayiwar, Lewend ; Mazepus, Honorata ; McHugh, Cillian ; Olsson, Andreas ; Otterbring, Tobias ; Packer, Dominic ; Palomaeki, Jussi ; Perry, Anat ; Petersen, Michael Bang ; Puthillam, Arathy ; Rothmund, Tobias ; Schmid, Petra C. ; Stadelmann, David ; Stoica, Augustin ; Stoyanov, Drozdstoy ; Stoyanova, Kristina ; Tewari, Shruti ; Todosijevic, Bojan ; Torgler, Benno ; Tsakiris, Manos ; Tung, Hans H. ; Umbres, Radu Gabriel ; Vanags, Edmunds ; Vlasceanu, Madalina ; Vonasch, Andrew J. ; Zhang, Yucheng ; Abad, Mohcine ; Adler, Eli ; Mdarhri, Hamza Alaoui ; Antazo, Benedict ; Ay, F. Ceren ; Ba, Mouhamadou El Hady ; Barbosa, Sergio ; Bastian, Brock ; Berg, Anton ; Bialek, Michal ; Bilancini, Ennio ; Bogatyreva, Natalia ; Boncinelli, Leonardo ; Booth, Jonathan E. ; Borau, Sylvie ; Buchel, Ondrej ; de Carvalho, Chrissie Ferreira ; Celadin, Tatiana ; Cerami, Chiara ; Chalise, Hom Nath ; Cheng, Xiaojun ; Cian, Luca ; Cockcroft, Kate ; Conway, Jane ; Cordoba-Delgado, Mateo A. ; Crespi, Chiara ; Crouzevialle, Marie ; Cutler, Jo ; Cypryanska, Marzena ; Dabrowska, Justyna ; Davis, Victoria H. ; Minda, John Paul ; Dayley, Pamala N. ; Delouvee, Sylvain ; Denkovski, Ognjan ; Dezecache, Guillaume ; Dhaliwal, Nathan A. ; Diato, Alelie ; Di Paolo, Roberto ; Dulleck, Uwe ; Ekmanis, Janis ; Etienne, Tom W. ; Farhana, Hapsa Hossain ; Farkhari, Fahima ; Fidanovski, Kristijan ; Flew, Terry ; Fraser, Shona ; Frempong, Raymond Boadi ; Fugelsang, Jonathan ; Gale, Jessica ; Garcia-Navarro, E. Begona ; Garladinne, Prasad ; Gray, Kurt ; Griffin, Siobhan M. ; Gronfeldt, Bjarki ; Gruber, June ; Halperin, Eran ; Herzon, Volo ; Hruska, Matej ; Hudecek, Matthias F. C. ; Isler, Ozan ; Jangard, Simon ; Jorgensen, Frederik ; Keudel, Oleksandra ; Koppel, Lina ; Koverola, Mika ; Kunnari, Anton ; Leota, Josh ; Lermer, Eva ; Li, Chunyun ; Longoni, Chiara ; McCashin, Darragh ; Miklousic, Igor ; Molina-Paredes, Juliana ; Monroy-Fonseca, Cesar ; Morales-Marente, Elena ; Moreau, David ; Muda, Rafal ; Myer, Annalisa ; Nash, Kyle ; Nitschke, Jonas P. ; Nurse, Matthew S. ; de Mello, Victoria Oldemburgo ; Palacios-Galvez, Maria Soledad ; Palomaki, Jussi ; Pan, Yafeng ; Papp, Zsofia ; Paernamets, Philip ; Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola ; Perander, Silva ; Pitman, Michael ; Raza, Ali ; Rego, Gabriel Gaudencio ; Robertson, Claire ; Rodriguez-Pascual, Ivan ; Saikkonen, Teemu ; Salvador-Ginez, Octavio ; Sampaio, Waldir M. ; Santi, Gaia Chiara ; Schultner, David ; Schutte, Enid ; Scott, Andy ; Skali, Ahmed ; Stefaniak, Anna ; Sternisko, Anni ; Strickland, Brent ; Thomas, Jeffrey P. ; Tinghoeg, Gustav ; Traast, Iris J. ; Tucciarelli, Raffaele ; Tyrala, Michael ; Ungson, Nick D. ; Uysal, Mete Sefa ; Van Rooy, Dirk ; Vaestfjaell, Daniel ; Vieira, Joana B. ; von Sikorski, Christian ; Walker, Alexander C. ; Watermeyer, Jennifer ; Willardt, Robin ; Wohl, Michael J. A. ; Wojcik, Adrian Dominik ; Wu, Kaidi ; Yamada, Yuki ; Yilmaz, Onurcan ; Yogeeswaran, Kumar ; Ziemer, Carolin-Theresa ; Zwaan, Rolf A. ; Boggio, Paulo Sergio ; Whillans, Ashley ; Van Lange, Paul A. M. ; Prasad, Rajib ; Onderco, Michal ; O'Madagain, Cathal ; Nesh-Nash, Tarik ; Laguna, Oscar Moreda ; Kubin, Emily ; Guemren, Mert ; Fenwick, Ali ; Ertan, Arhan S. ; Bernstein, Michael J. ; Amara, Hanane ; Van Bavel, Jay Joseph

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: PNAS NEXUS; v. 1, n. 3, p. 15-pg., 2022-08-16.

Abstract

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution-individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 19/26665-5 - The influence of social factors on the judgment of moral foundations
• Grantee: Gabriel Gaudencio Do Rêgo
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 19/27100-1 - Effects of breach of anonymity and privacy of the group on cooperative behavior: a study with public goods game and functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS)
• Grantee: Waldir Monteiro Sampaio
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate