Analyzing and forecasting the morphology of Amazon deforestation

Author(s)

Teixeira, Marcio J. ; Machado, Luiz A. T. ; Artaxo, Paulo ; Calheiros, Alan ; Correa, Pedro ; Franco, Marco A. ; Shimbo, Julia ; Rizzo, Luciana, V

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT; v. 586, p. 16-pg., 2025-06-15.

Abstract

This study analyzes spatial-temporal deforestation patterns in Amazonas using 36 years of land use and land cover changes . We identified contiguous deforestation patches for each year and characterized their evolution using two geometric metrics: compactness, related to the shape of the patch and equivalent radius, proportional to the deforested area. These metrics enabled the aggregation of deforestation patches into four distinct regions within the Amazon, each exhibiting unique yet consistent characteristics with different temporal evolution. Typical distributions were found for these two metrics that allow to characterize space and time evolution of the deforestation for different land-use. Pasture patches showed a gamma distribution, while agricultural lands followed a lognormal distribution. Over time, pastures exhibited a trend towards lower compactness values, whereas agriculture and silviculture demonstrated shifts towards higher compactness. The equivalent radius distribution showed increased frequency of larger deforested areas over time. These findings underscore the utility of simple geometric metrics in understanding deforestation's spatial and temporal evolution, offering valuable insights into land-use dynamics estimation in the Amazon and providing a foundation for more effective monitoring and conservation strategies. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 22/07974-0 - Synergistic effects of climate change and land use on carbon source and sink of Amazon forest ecosystem
• Grantee: Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 21/12954-5 - Greenhouse gases in Amazonia: integration of data from different observational platforms, and investigation of relationships with environmental factors
• Grantee: Márcio José Teixeira
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 20/15230-5 - Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation - RCG2I
• Grantee: Julio Romano Meneghini
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Research Centers in Engineering Program
• FAPESP's process: 21/13610-8 - Remote sensing of greenhouse gases, air pollutants and aerosols in Amazonia.
• Grantee: Marco Aurélio de Menezes Franco
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral