The invisible threat: Assessing the collisional hazard posed by undiscovered Venus co-orbital asteroids

Author(s)

Carruba, V. ; Sfair, R. ; Araujo, R. A. N. ; Winter, O. C. ; Mourao, D. C. ; Di Ruzza, S. ; Aljbaae, S. ; Carita, G. ; Domingos, R. C. ; Alves, A. A.

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Astronomy & Astrophysics; v. 699, p. 10-pg., 2025-06-30.

Abstract

Context. There are 20 co-orbital asteroids of Venus currently known. Only one of them exhibits an eccentricity below 0.38. This is most likely caused by observational biases since asteroids with higher eccentricities have a higher probability of approaching the Earth and are easier to detect. Aims. We aim to assess the possible threat that the as-yet-undetected population of Venus co-orbitals might pose to Earth and investigate their detectability from Earth and space observatories. Methods. We used semi-analytical models of the 1:1 mean-motion resonance with Venus and numerical simulations to monitor close encounters with Earth on several co-orbital cycles. We analyzed the observability windows and brightness variations for potential Venus co-orbitals, as viewed from ground-based telescopes to assess their future detection feasibility with next-generation survey capabilities. Results. There is a range of orbits with e < 0.38, larger at lower inclinations, for which Venus'co-orbitals can pose a collisional hazard to Earth. Conclusions. Current ground-based observations are constrained by periodic observing windows and solar elongation limitations; however, the Rubin Observatory might be able to detect some of these objects during favorable configurations. Space missions based on Venus'orbits could be instrumental in detecting Venus'co-orbitals at low eccentricities. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 21/08274-9 - CubeSats orbital dynamics study using machine learning
• Grantee: Gabriel Antonio Caritá
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate