| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Brunetti, H. B.
;
Fattori Junior, I. M.
;
Dias, T. S. S.
;
de Melo, M. L. A.
;
Santos, P. M.
;
Pezzopane, J. R. M.
;
Boote, K. J.
;
Marin, F. R.
Total Authors: 8
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS; v. 233, p. 17-pg., 2025-12-26. |
| Abstract | |
CONTEXT: Brazil hosts the world's largest commercial cattle herd, primarily raised in pasture-based systems that occupy around 164 million ha. Increasing beef production while minimizing environmental impacts is essential. Although climate change is expected to significantly affect global crop yields, comprehensive assessments of its impacts on forage production in Brazil remain scarce. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate (i) the effects of climate change on forage yield, seasonality, and climate risk for Marandu palisadegrass (Urochloa brizantha cv. BRS Marandu) and Mombasa guineagrass (Megathyrsus maximus cv. BRS Mombasa) by 2050, and (ii) the effectiveness of pasture deferment and forage ensiling as mitigation strategies. METHODS: We used the process-based CROPGRO-Perennial Forage Model (CROPGRO-PFM) driven by 10 Global Circulation Models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2035-2065 period, compared to a baseline (1989-2019). For the deferment simulation, pastures were left ungrazed for 75 days preceding the three consecutive months with the lowest herbage accumulation rates (HAR), assuming that 50 % of the accumulated dead material remained available for intake. Ensiling was simulated for 90 days during the three months with the highest HARs, assuming 75 % dry matter recovery, which was subsequently allocated to the three months with the lowest HAR. Both management practices were applied to 30 % of the pasture area. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 24/19920-7 - Increasing productivity in Brazilian degraded pasture areas towards meeting the future world beef demand |
| Grantee: | Henrique Bauab Brunetti |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral |
| FAPESP's process: | 24/12895-7 - Simulation of future scenarios for pastures in Brazil: strategies for minimizing climate risks |
| Grantee: | Henrique Bauab Brunetti |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Support Program for Fixating Young Doctors |
| FAPESP's process: | 21/10573-4 - CENTER FOR CARBON RESEARCH IN TROPICAL AGRICULTURE (CCARBON) |
| Grantee: | Carlos Eduardo Pellegrino Cerri |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Grants - Research, Innovation and Dissemination Centers - RIDC |