Variability of the monsoon regime over Brazil: the present climate and projections for a 2xCO2 scenario using the MIROC model

Author(s)

Rodrigo José Bombardi ^[1] ; Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho ^[2]

Affiliation

^[1] Universidade de São Paulo. Depto. Ciências Atmosféricas - Brasil

^[2] Universidade de São Paulo. Depto. Ciências Atmosféricas

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia; v. 23, n. 1, p. 58-72, 2008-03-00.
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences

Abstract

This study investigates the temporal variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over Brazil with focus on the Brazilian savanna. The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (1979-2004). Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics are investigated using the intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) coupled global climate model for Interdisciplinary Research (MIROC) in the 20th century (1981-2000) and in a scenario with the double present concentration of CO2 (2xCO2) (2061-2080).. It is shown that the spatial variability of the onsets over central Brazil simulated by MIROC for the 20th century run corresponds very well to the observations. Moreover, there is indication of change in the tails of the seasonal precipitation distributions over the savanna for the scenario with 2xCO2, comparatively to the present climate. This suggests changes in the probability of extremes (dry or wet) events over that region in a scenario with 2xCO2, which indicates according to MIROC the large exposure of the region to possible consequences of climate changes resulting from increasing greenhouse gases. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 06/53769-6 - Climatic extremes in the Southeast and Center-West of Brazil: the present climate and projections for the XXI Century
• Grantee: Rodrigo José Bombardi
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• FAPESP's process: 02/09289-9 - Biosphere-atmosphere interaction - Phase 2: cerrados and land use changes
• Grantee: Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha
• Support Opportunities: BIOTA-FAPESP Program - Thematic Grants