Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change

Author(s):Show less -

Huntingford, Chris ^[1] ; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw ^[2] ; Galbraith, David ^{[3, 2]} ; Mercado, Lina M. ^{[1, 4]} ; Sitch, Stephen ^{[3, 4]} ; Fisher, Rosie ^[5] ; Lomas, Mark ^[6] ; Walker, Anthony P. ^[6] ; Jones, Chris D. ^[7] ; Booth, Ben B. B. ^[7] ; Malhi, Yadvinder ^[2] ; Hemming, Debbie ^[7] ; Kay, Gillian ^[7] ; Good, Peter ^[7] ; Lewis, Simon L. ^{[3, 8]} ; Phillips, Oliver L. ^[3] ; Atkin, Owen K. ^[9] ; Lloyd, Jon ^{[3, 10, 11]} ; Gloor, Emanuel ^[3] ; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana ^[12] ; Meir, Patrick ^{[12, 9]} ; Betts, Richard ^[7] ; Harris, Phil P. ^[1] ; Nobre, Carlos ^[13] ; Marengo, Jose ^[13] ; Cox, Peter M. ^[14]

Affiliation:Show less -

^[1] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon - England

^[2] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY - England

^[3] Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire - England

^[4] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon - England

^[5] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80305 - USA

^[6] Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire - England

^[7] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon - England

^[8] UCL, Dept Geog, London WC1E 6BT - England

^[9] Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Div Plant Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200 - Australia

^[10] James Cook Univ, Ctr Trop Environm & Sustainabil Sci TESS, Cairns, Qld 4878 - Australia

^[11] James Cook Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Cairns, Qld 4878 - Australia

^[12] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian - Scotland

^[13] CCST Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais INPE, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[14] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon - England

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: NATURE GEOSCIENCE; v. 6, n. 4, p. 268-273, APR 2013.
• Web of Science Citations: 212

Abstract

How tropical forest carbon stocks might alter in response to changes in climate and atmospheric composition is uncertain. However, assessing potential future carbon loss from tropical forests is important for evaluating the efficacy of programmes for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation. Uncertainties are associated with different carbon stock responses in models with different representations of vegetation processes on the one hand(1-3), and differences in projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns on the other hand(4,5). Here we present a systematic exploration of these sources of uncertainty, along with uncertainty arising from different emissions scenarios for all three main tropical forest regions: the Americas (that is, Amazonia and Central America), Africa and Asia. Using simulations with 22 climate models and the MOSES-TRIFFID land surface scheme, we find that only in one(5) of the simulations are tropical forests projected to lose biomass by the end of the twenty-first century-and then only for the Americas. When comparing with alternative models of plant physiological processes(1,2), we find that the largest uncertainties are associated with plant physiological responses, and then with future emissions scenarios. Uncertainties from differences in the climate projections are significantly smaller. Despite the considerable uncertainties, we conclude that there is evidence of forest resilience for all three regions. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 08/58107-7 - Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Brazil: quantitative inputs for the design of public policies
• Grantee: Ricardo Abramovay
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants