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Risk optimization: development and applications

Grant number: 12/21357-1
Support Opportunities:Regular Research Grants
Duration: March 01, 2013 - February 28, 2015
Field of knowledge:Engineering - Civil Engineering - Structural Engineering
Principal Investigator:André Teófilo Beck
Grantee:André Teófilo Beck
Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
Associated researchers:Felipe Alexander Vargas Bazán ; Jesús Daniel Villalba Morales ; Wellison José de Santana Gomes

Abstract

Defying failure is the primary challenge of the structural engineer. It sounds paradoxical, but in order to achieve a successful design, the structural engineer must think about and account for all possible failure modes of a structure. This is no different in structural optimization. Hence, in structural optimization one has to consider all the expected costs of failure. In structural engineering design, economy and safety are apparently conflicting goals. However, when expected costs of failure are considered, one notes that he has to invest in safety in order not to pay for the expected costs of failure. The optimum point of compromise can be found by a risk optimization, where the objective function includes all costs over the life-cycle of the structure: construction, operation, inspection maintenance, disposal, and the expected consequences of failure. The later are an undeletable remainder of the failure modes that the structure needs to be designed against. Within the scope of risk optimization, this research project addresses six lines of: a. Strategies to reduce the computational cost in risk optimization; b. Use of meta-modeling techniques to approximate the objective function; c. Topological optimization considering the expected consequences of failure; d. Risk optimization applied to safety management of underground pipelines; e. Optimal design of steel frames with semi-rigid connections and f. Risk management for rock tunnels. Lines a. and b. above are lines of theoretical development. Line c. is conceptual, and will help to understand the effect of failure consequences in structural topology. Lines d. to f. involve application of risk optimization to practical problems of structural engineering. All research lines represent technological challenges to be overcome. (AU)

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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
NAPA-GARCIA, GIAN F.; BECK, ANDRE T.; CELESTINO, TARCISIO B.. Reliability analyses of underground openings with the point estimate method. TUNNELLING AND UNDERGROUND SPACE TECHNOLOGY, v. 64, p. 154-163, . (12/21357-1)
BECK, ANDRE T.; GOMES, WELLISON J. S.; LOPEZ, RAFAEL H.; MIGUEL, LEANDRO F. F.. A comparison between robust and risk-based optimization under uncertainty. STRUCTURAL AND MULTIDISCIPLINARY OPTIMIZATION, v. 52, n. 3, p. 479-492, . (12/21357-1)
NAPA-GARCIA, G. F.; SANTOS, R. A.; BECK, A. T.; CELESTINO, T. B.. Improvement of analytical factor of safety estimation of falling failure mode in roof wedge stability. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS AND MINING SCIENCES, v. 103, p. 7-pg., . (12/21357-1)

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