Understanding the causes of the biases that determine the onset of the rainy season in Amazonia in climate models using GoAmazon-CHUVA measurements

• Grant number: 13/50538-7
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: January 01, 2014
• End date: December 31, 2016
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Agreement: GOAmazon Collaborative Research
• Principal Investigator: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Grantee: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Principal researcher abroad: Rong Fu
• Institution abroad: University of Texas at Austin (UT), United States
• Host Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The onset of the Amazon rainy season has a large temporal and spatial variability, and with this a strong impact on variability of the distribution of aerosols, ecosystems, fire and carbon fluxes, dry season length, agriculture, and hydropower. Changes of the length of the dry season, and increased dry season resilience due to CO2 fertilization, are the two leading factors from climate change for determining the risk of Amazon rainforest die-back in the 21st century. Two major droughts occurred in the region in the last 20 years (2005 and 2010) and the dry season has increased in length by about one month. However, evaluations of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models suggest that most of these models underestimate the past variability of the rainy season onset, thus dry season length, and also project virtually no future change of these variables even when the models are forced by strong greenhouse forcing under the RCP8.5 scenario. Why the models underestimate the variability of the rainy season onset, and whether this bias implies an underestimate of the climate sensitivity of the dry season length to anthropogenic radiative forcing remain unclear. This proposal aims to explore use of the measurements provided by GoAmazon and Brazil CHUVA Field Experiments, along with regional model experiments, to explore the processes that contribute to this underestimation of the modeled variability of rainy season onset, with focus on the WRF and CESM from the US investigators and the Eta regional Model and the BESM (Brazilian Earth System Model) from the Brazilian partners. (AU)

Scientific publications

(11)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

ZHUANG, YIZHOU; FU, RONG; MARENGO, JOSE A.; WANG, HONGQING. Seasonal variation of shallow-to-deep convection transition and its link to the environmental conditions over the Central Amazon. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, v. 122, n. 5, p. 2649-2666, MAR 16 2017. (13/50538-7)

BOERS, NIKLAS; BARBOSA, HENRIQUE M. J.; BOOKHAGEN, BODO; MARENGO, JOSE A.; MARWAN, NORBERT; KURTHS, JUERGEN. Propagation of Strong Rainfall Events from Southeastern South America to the Central Andes. Journal of Climate, v. 28, n. 19, p. 7641-7658, OCT 2015. (13/50538-7, 11/50151-0)

DRUMOND, A.; MARENGO, J.; AMBRIZZI, T.; NIETO, R.; MOREIRA, L.; GIMENO, L.. The role of the Amazon Basin moisture in the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle: a Lagrangian analysis. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 18, n. 7, p. 2577-2598, 2014. (08/58101-9, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9, 13/50538-7)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; BERNASCONI, MAURO. Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections. Climatic Change, v. 129, n. 1-2, p. 103-115, MAR 2015. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)

BOERS, NIKLAS; BOOKHAGEN, BODO; MARENGO, JOSE; MARWAN, NORBERT; VON STORCH, JIN-SONG; KURTHS, JUERGEN. Extreme Rainfall of the South American Monsoon System: A Dataset Comparison Using Complex Networks. Journal of Climate, v. 28, n. 3, p. 1031-1056, FEB 1 2015. (13/50538-7, 11/50151-0)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; FISCH, GILBERTO F.; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; SOUSA, NATANAEL V.; FU, RONG; ZHUANG, YIZHOU. Meteorological context of the onset and end of the rainy season in Central Amazonia during the GoAmazon2014/5. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, v. 17, n. 12, p. 7671-7681, JUN 26 2017. (13/50538-7, 15/50122-0)

ZHANG, KAI; FU, RONG; SHAIKH, MUHAMMAD J.; GHAN, STEVEN; WANG, MINGHUAI; LEUNG, L. RUBY; DICKINSON, ROBERT E.; MARENGO, JOSE. Influence of Superparameterization and a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure on Rainfall Bias Over Amazonia in Community Atmosphere Model Version 5. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, v. 122, n. 18, p. 9879-9902, SEP 27 2017. (13/50538-7)

CARLO ESPINOZA, JHAN; MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO; RONCHAIL, JOSYANE; MOLINA CARPIO, JORGE; NORIEGA FLORES, LUIS; LOUP GUYOT, JEAN. The extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin: the role of tropical-subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, v. 9, n. 12, DEC 2014. (13/50538-7)

OBREGON, GUILLERMO O.; MARENGO, JOSE A.; NOBRE, CARLOS A.. Rainfall and climate variability: long-term trends in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo in the 20th century. CLIMATE RESEARCH, v. 61, n. 2, p. 93-107, SEP 2014. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)

BOERS, N.; BOOKHAGEN, B.; BARBOSA, H. M. J.; MARWAN, N.; KURTHS, J.; MARENGO, J. A.. Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v. 5, OCT 2014. (13/50538-7, 13/50510-5, 08/58161-1, 11/50151-0)

MARENGO, J. A.; ESPINOZA, J. C.. Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 36, n. 3, p. 1033-1050, MAR 15 2016. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/57719-9)