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Dynamics of malaria transmission under distinct landscape fragmentation thresholds

Grant number: 14/09774-1
Support type:BIOTA-FAPESP Program - Young Investigators Grants
Duration: February 01, 2015 - March 31, 2019
Field of knowledge:Health Sciences - Collective Health - Epidemiology
Principal Investigator:Gabriel Zorello Laporta
Grantee:Gabriel Zorello Laporta
Home Institution: Faculdade de Medicina do ABC (FMABC). Organização Social de Saúde. Fundação do ABC. Santo André , SP, Brazil
Assoc. researchers:Eduardo Massad
Associated scholarship(s):15/09669-6 - Dynamics of malaria transmission under distinct landscape fragmentation thresholds, AP.BTA.JP


Malaria is the most prevalent vector-borne parasitic disease in the Americas, and Brazil has the highest regional malaria incidence. The most aggressive and effective Neotropical malaria vector, particularly in the Amazon Basin, is Anopheles darlingi. This species' impact is facilitated by its rapid exploitation of the novel environments provided by whole ecosystem alteration via factors associated with deforestation, e.g., so-called frontier malaria outbreaks. There are more than 2,700 recent agricultural settlements in Amazonian Brazil, accounting for over 63,000 malaria cases in Brazil in 2012. The Frontier Malaria Hypothesis postulates that malaria incidence peaks early following settlement and declines with settlement age. The present proposal is linked to a Research Project (n 1R01 AI110112-01A1, Project Title: "Latitudinal landscape genomics and ecology of Anopheles darlingi", Principal Investigators: Jan E. Conn - USA, M. Anice M. Sallum - Brazil) funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), USA, 2014-2019. Herein, we will examine understudied aspects of dynamics of malaria transmission in Brazil. We will test the Frontier Malaria Hypothesis (FMH), by explicitly separating the effects of settlement age and landscape fragmentation. We will use a state-of-the art ecologically based experimental design that compares environmental variables in three levels of landscape fragmentation and two habitat types in both new and old settlements in two regions (east and west) of Amazonian Brazil. Entomological metrics and the dynamics of malaria transmission will be compared among 12 settlements, by applying mixed effect regression models. Three mathematical models that represent the dynamics of malaria transmission will be employed to understand malaria emergence under distinct landscape fragmentation thresholds. The first model is the Ross-Macdonald (H0), the second is a biodiversity-oriented model (H1) and the third is a food-web model (H2). These models will be calibrated with primary data acquired in the field and their R0 (Basic Reproductive Number) values will be compared to epidemiological data provided by the Ministry of Health. Simulations using these models in hypothetical scenarios will be performed to identify the main mechanisms responsible for the success in malarial transmission. Expected results are that a modified FMH, that accounts for both age and fragmentation, will provide stronger predictive power for the invasiveness of An. darlingi and other vectors causing malaria emergence in a wide range of fragmented landscape types. (AU)

Scientific publications (15)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
MELO, J. O.; PADILHA, M. A. O.; BARBOSA, R. T. A.; ALONSO, W. J.; VITTOR, A. Y.; LAPORTA, G. Z. Evaluation of the malaria elimination policy in Brazil: a systematic review and epidemiological analysis study. TROPICAL BIOMEDICINE, v. 37, n. 2, p. 513-535, JUN 2020. Web of Science Citations: 0.
DEMARI-SILVA, B.; LAPORTA, G. Z.; OLIVEIRA, T. M. P.; SALLUM, M. A. M. Plasmodium infection in Kerteszia cruzii (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Atlantic tropical rain forest, southeastern Brazil. INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION, v. 78, MAR 2020. Web of Science Citations: 0.
DE OLIVEIRA PADILHA, MEYRECLER AGLAIR; MELO, JANILLE DE OLIVEIRA; ROMANO, GUILHERME; MALVEIRA DE LIMA, MARCOS VINICIUS; ALONSO, WLADIMIR J.; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Comparison of malaria incidence rates and socioeconomic-environmental factors between the states of Acre and Rondonia: a spatio-temporal modelling study. Malaria Journal, v. 18, n. 1 SEP 4 2019. Web of Science Citations: 0.
LOAIZA, JOSE R.; ROVIRA, JOSE R.; SANJUR, I, ORIS; ZEPEDA, JESUS ALTAGRACIA; PECOR, JAMES E.; FOLEY, DESMOND H.; DUTARI, LARISSA; RADTKE, MEGHAN; PONGSIRI, MONTIRA J.; MOLINAR, OCTAVIO SMITH; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z. Forest disturbance and vector transmitted diseases in the lowland tropical rainforest of central Panama. TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH, v. 24, n. 7, p. 849-861, JUL 2019. Web of Science Citations: 1.
GONCALVES, FRANCIELY GOMES; FERNANDES BELONE, ANDREA DE FARIA; ROSA, PATRICIA SAMMARCO; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Underlying mechanisms of leprosy recurrence in the Western Amazon: a retrospective cohort study. BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, v. 19, MAY 22 2019. Web of Science Citations: 0.
SALLUM, MARIA ANICE M.; CONN, JAN E.; BERGO, EDUARDO S.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; CHAVES, LEONARDO S. M.; BICKERSMITH, SARA A.; DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE M. P.; FIGUEIRA, ELDER AUGUSTO G.; MORESCO, GILBERTO; OLIVER, LEUDA; STRUCHINER, CLAUDIO J.; YAKOB, LAITH; MASSAD, EDUARDO. Vector competence, vectorial capacity of Nyssorhynchus darlingi and the basic reproduction number of Plasmodium vivax in agricultural settlements in the Amazonian Region of Brazil. Malaria Journal, v. 18, APR 4 2019. Web of Science Citations: 3.
VALLE, DENIS; BEN TOH, KOK; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; ZHAO, QING. Ordinal regression models for zero-inflated and/or over-dispersed count data. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 9, FEB 28 2019. Web of Science Citations: 2.
GRENI, SUSAN ELAINE; DEMARI-SILVA, BRUNA; PORANGABA DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE MARQUES; SUESDEK, LINCOLN; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE. A Multi-Gene Analysis and Potential Spatial Distribution of Species of the Strodei Subgroup of the Genus Nyssorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae). Journal of Medical Entomology, v. 55, n. 6, p. 1486-1495, NOV 2018. Web of Science Citations: 0.
BOURKE, BRIAN P.; CONN, JAN E.; DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE M. P.; CHAVES, LEONARDO S. M.; BERGO, EDUARDO S.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; SALLUM, MARIA A. M. Exploring malaria vector diversity on the Amazon Frontier. Malaria Journal, v. 17, SEP 27 2018. Web of Science Citations: 2.
RIBEIRO, MAURA REGINA; DE ABREU, LUIZ CARLOS; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Drinking water and rural schools in the Western Amazon: an environmental intervention study. PeerJ, v. 6, JUN 15 2018. Web of Science Citations: 3.
ILACQUA, ROBERTO CARDOSO; MOREIRA CHAVES, LEONARDO SUVEGES; BERGO, EDUARDO STERLINO; CONN, JAN E.; MUBEB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. A method for estimating the deforestation timeline in rural settlements in a scenario of malaria transmission in frontier expansion in the Amazon Region. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, v. 113, n. 9, p. -, 2018. Web of Science Citations: 1.
LOAIZA, JOSE R.; DUTARI, LARISSA C.; ROVIRA, JOSE R.; SANJUR, ORIS I.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; PECOR, JAMES; FOLEY, DESMOND H.; EASTWOOD, GILLIAN; KRAMER, LAURA D.; RADTKE, MEGHAN; PONGSIRI, MONTIRA. Disturbance and mosquito diversity in the lowland tropical rainforest of central Panama. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 7, AUG 3 2017. Web of Science Citations: 8.
LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Spotlight on Plasmodium falciparum evolutionary system in the southeastern Atlantic forest. Biota Neotropica, v. 17, n. 3 2017. Web of Science Citations: 0.
LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; BURATTINI, MARCELO NASCIMENTO; LEVY, DEBORA; FUKUYA, LINAH AKEMI; PORANGABA DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE MARQUES; FERREIRA MASELLI, LUCIANA MORGANTI; CONN, JAN EVELYN; MASSAD, EDUARDO; BYDLOWSKI, SERGIO PAULO; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE. Plasmodium falciparum in the southeastern Atlantic forest: a challenge to the bromeliad-malaria paradigm?. Malaria Journal, v. 14, APR 25 2015. Web of Science Citations: 12.

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