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Dynamics of malaria transmission under distinct landscape fragmentation thresholds

Abstract

Malaria is the most prevalent vector-borne parasitic disease in the Americas, and Brazil has the highest regional malaria incidence. The most aggressive and effective Neotropical malaria vector, particularly in the Amazon Basin, is Anopheles darlingi. This species' impact is facilitated by its rapid exploitation of the novel environments provided by whole ecosystem alteration via factors associated with deforestation, e.g., so-called frontier malaria outbreaks. There are more than 2,700 recent agricultural settlements in Amazonian Brazil, accounting for over 63,000 malaria cases in Brazil in 2012. The Frontier Malaria Hypothesis postulates that malaria incidence peaks early following settlement and declines with settlement age. The present proposal is linked to a Research Project (n 1R01 AI110112-01A1, Project Title: "Latitudinal landscape genomics and ecology of Anopheles darlingi", Principal Investigators: Jan E. Conn - USA, M. Anice M. Sallum - Brazil) funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), USA, 2014-2019. Herein, we will examine understudied aspects of dynamics of malaria transmission in Brazil. We will test the Frontier Malaria Hypothesis (FMH), by explicitly separating the effects of settlement age and landscape fragmentation. We will use a state-of-the art ecologically based experimental design that compares environmental variables in three levels of landscape fragmentation and two habitat types in both new and old settlements in two regions (east and west) of Amazonian Brazil. Entomological metrics and the dynamics of malaria transmission will be compared among 12 settlements, by applying mixed effect regression models. Three mathematical models that represent the dynamics of malaria transmission will be employed to understand malaria emergence under distinct landscape fragmentation thresholds. The first model is the Ross-Macdonald (H0), the second is a biodiversity-oriented model (H1) and the third is a food-web model (H2). These models will be calibrated with primary data acquired in the field and their R0 (Basic Reproductive Number) values will be compared to epidemiological data provided by the Ministry of Health. Simulations using these models in hypothetical scenarios will be performed to identify the main mechanisms responsible for the success in malarial transmission. Expected results are that a modified FMH, that accounts for both age and fragmentation, will provide stronger predictive power for the invasiveness of An. darlingi and other vectors causing malaria emergence in a wide range of fragmented landscape types. (AU)

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Scientific publications (21)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
NAGAKI, SANDRA SAYURI; CHAVES, LEONARDO S. M.; LOPEZ, ROSSANA VEONICA MENDOZA; BERGO, EDUARDO S.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; CONN, JAN E.; SALLUM, MARIA ANICE MUREB. Host feeding patterns of Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Brazilian Amazon. Acta Tropica, v. 213, . (16/08562-6, 14/26229-7, 14/09774-1)
SALLUM, MARIA ANICE M.; CONN, JAN E.; BERGO, EDUARDO S.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; CHAVES, LEONARDO S. M.; BICKERSMITH, SARA A.; DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE M. P.; FIGUEIRA, ELDER AUGUSTO G.; MORESCO, GILBERTO; OLIVER, LEUDA; et al. Vector competence, vectorial capacity of Nyssorhynchus darlingi and the basic reproduction number of Plasmodium vivax in agricultural settlements in the Amazonian Region of Brazil. Malaria Journal, v. 18, . (14/26229-7, 14/09774-1)
LOAIZA, JOSE R.; ROVIRA, JOSE R.; SANJUR, I, ORIS; ZEPEDA, JESUS ALTAGRACIA; PECOR, JAMES E.; FOLEY, DESMOND H.; DUTARI, LARISSA; RADTKE, MEGHAN; PONGSIRI, MONTIRA J.; MOLINAR, OCTAVIO SMITH; et al. Forest disturbance and vector transmitted diseases in the lowland tropical rainforest of central Panama. TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH, v. 24, n. 7, p. 849-861, . (14/09774-1)
OLIVEIRA, TATIANE M. P.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; BERGO, EDUARDO S.; CHAVES, LEONARDO SUVEGES MOREIRA; ANTUNES, JOSE LEOPOLDO F.; BICKERSMITH, SARA A.; CONN, JAN E.; MASSAD, EDUARDO; SALLUM, MARIA ANICE MUREB. Vector role and human biting activity of Anophelinae mosquitoes in different landscapes in the Brazilian Amazon. PARASITES & VECTORS, v. 14, n. 1, . (14/26229-7, 14/09774-1)
MASSAD, EDUARDO; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; CONN, JAN EVELYN; CHAVES, LEONARDO SUVEGES; BERGO, EDUARDO STERLINO; GUIMARAES FIGUEIRA, ELDER AUGUSTO; BEZERRA COUTINHO, FRANCISCO ANTONIO; LOPEZ, LUIS FERNANDEZ; STRUCHINER, CLAUDIO; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE. The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach. TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE, v. 37, . (14/26229-7, 14/09774-1)
DE OLIVEIRA PADILHA, MEYRECLER AGLAIR; MELO, JANILLE DE OLIVEIRA; ROMANO, GUILHERME; MALVEIRA DE LIMA, MARCOS VINICIUS; ALONSO, WLADIMIR J.; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Comparison of malaria incidence rates and socioeconomic-environmental factors between the states of Acre and Rondonia: a spatio-temporal modelling study. Malaria Journal, v. 18, n. 1, . (14/26229-7, 15/09669-6, 14/09774-1)
CHAVES, LEONARDO SUVEGES MOREIRA; BERGO, EDUARDO STERLINO; CONN, JAN E.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; PRIST, PAULA RIBEIRO; SALLUM, MARIA ANICE MUREB. Anthropogenic landscape decreases mosquito biodiversity and drives malaria vector proliferation in the Amazon rainforest. PLoS One, v. 16, n. 1, . (14/26229-7, 14/09774-1, 14/26855-5)
MELO, J. O.; PADILHA, M. A. O.; BARBOSA, R. T. A.; ALONSO, W. J.; VITTOR, A. Y.; LAPORTA, G. Z.. Evaluation of the malaria elimination policy in Brazil: a systematic review and epidemiological analysis study. TROPICAL BIOMEDICINE, v. 37, n. 2, p. 513-535, . (14/09774-1)
GONCALVES, FRANCIELY GOMES; FERNANDES BELONE, ANDREA DE FARIA; ROSA, PATRICIA SAMMARCO; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Underlying mechanisms of leprosy recurrence in the Western Amazon: a retrospective cohort study. BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, v. 19, . (14/09774-1)
SEIJAS-CHAVEZ, JULIO ABEL; NOLAN, MELISSA S.; LYNN, MARY K.; DA ROCHA, MARIA JOSE FRANCALINO; DA COSTA ARAUJO, MUANA; FONSECA, FERNANDO LUIZ AFFONSO; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Causal effects on low Apgar at 5-min and stillbirth in a malaria maternal-fetal health outcome investigation: a large perinatal surveillance study in the Brazilian Amazon. Malaria Journal, v. 20, n. 1, . (14/09774-1)
DEMARI-SILVA, B.; LAPORTA, G. Z.; OLIVEIRA, T. M. P.; SALLUM, M. A. M.. Plasmodium infection in Kerteszia cruzii (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Atlantic tropical rain forest, southeastern Brazil. INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION, v. 78, . (14/26229-7, 16/08551-4, 14/09774-1)
DEMARI-SILVA, BRUNA; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE MARQUES PORANGABA; SALLUM, MARIA ANICE MUREB. Evidence of Elevational Speciation in Kerteszia cruzii (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Ribeira Valley, Sao Paulo, Brazil. FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION, v. 9, . (14/09774-1, 14/26229-7, 16/08551-4)
LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; ILACQUA, ROBERTO C.; BERGO, EDUARDO S.; CHAVES, LEONARDO S. M.; RODOVALHO, SHEILA R.; MORESCO, GILBERTO G.; FIGUEIRA, ELDER A. G.; MASSAD, EDUARDO; DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE M. P.; BICKERSMITH, SARA A.; et al. Malaria transmission in landscapes with varying deforestation levels and timelines in the Amazon: a longitudinal spatiotemporal study. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 11, n. 1, . (14/09774-1, 14/26229-7)
GRENI, SUSAN ELAINE; DEMARI-SILVA, BRUNA; PORANGABA DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE MARQUES; SUESDEK, LINCOLN; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE. A Multi-Gene Analysis and Potential Spatial Distribution of Species of the Strodei Subgroup of the Genus Nyssorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae). Journal of Medical Entomology, v. 55, n. 6, p. 1486-1495, . (14/26229-7, 14/09774-1)
ROBERTO CARDOSO ILACQUA; LEONARDO SUVEGES MOREIRA CHAVES; EDUARDO STERLINO BERGO; JAN E CONN; MARIA ANICE MUBEB SALLUM; GABRIEL ZORELLO LAPORTA. A method for estimating the deforestation timeline in rural settlements in a scenario of malaria transmission in frontier expansion in the Amazon Region. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, v. 113, n. 9, . (14/09774-1)
RIBEIRO, MAURA REGINA; DE ABREU, LUIZ CARLOS; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO. Drinking water and rural schools in the Western Amazon: an environmental intervention study. PeerJ, v. 6, . (14/09774-1)
LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; LINTON, YVONNE-MARIE; WILKERSON, RICHARD C.; BERGO, EDUARDO STERLINO; NAGAKI, SANDRA SAYURI; SANT'ANA, DENISE CRISTINA; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE. Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios. PARASITES & VECTORS, v. 8, . (15/09669-6, 14/26229-7, 14/09774-1)
LOAIZA, JOSE R.; DUTARI, LARISSA C.; ROVIRA, JOSE R.; SANJUR, ORIS I.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; PECOR, JAMES; FOLEY, DESMOND H.; EASTWOOD, GILLIAN; KRAMER, LAURA D.; RADTKE, MEGHAN; et al. Disturbance and mosquito diversity in the lowland tropical rainforest of central Panama. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 7, . (15/09669-6, 14/09774-1)
LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; BURATTINI, MARCELO NASCIMENTO; LEVY, DEBORA; FUKUYA, LINAH AKEMI; PORANGABA DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE MARQUES; FERREIRA MASELLI, LUCIANA MORGANTI; CONN, JAN EVELYN; MASSAD, EDUARDO; BYDLOWSKI, SERGIO PAULO; MUREB SALLUM, MARIA ANICE. Plasmodium falciparum in the southeastern Atlantic forest: a challenge to the bromeliad-malaria paradigm?. Malaria Journal, v. 14, . (12/09939-5, 14/09774-1, 09/53141-5, 11/20397-7)
VALLE, DENIS; BEN TOH, KOK; LAPORTA, GABRIEL ZORELLO; ZHAO, QING. Ordinal regression models for zero-inflated and/or over-dispersed count data. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 9, . (14/09774-1)
BOURKE, BRIAN P.; CONN, JAN E.; DE OLIVEIRA, TATIANE M. P.; CHAVES, LEONARDO S. M.; BERGO, EDUARDO S.; LAPORTA, GABRIEL Z.; SALLUM, MARIA A. M.. Exploring malaria vector diversity on the Amazon Frontier. Malaria Journal, v. 17, . (14/26229-7, 14/09774-1)

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