Brasil and Argentina: public opinion and trade preferences

• Grant number: 14/24195-8
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: November 01, 2015
• End date: April 30, 2018
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Principal Investigator: Janina Onuki
• Grantee: Janina Onuki
• Host Institution: Instituto de Relações Internacionais (IRI). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Fernando Mouron ; Luis Leandro Schenoni ; Matheus Soldi Hardt ; Pedro Feliú Ribeiro
• Associated research grant(s): 16/50469-3 - Brasil and Argentina: public opinion and trade preferences, AP.R SPRINT; 16/50357-0 - Intercontinental science diplomacy: the case of EU-Brazil cooperation, AP.R SPRINT

Abstract

The objective of this research project is to understand how Argentinean and Brazilian public opinion perceive their commercial bilateral relation. In turn, we will analyze if those preferences are stable and coherent, or if they change according to the priming given to the commercial bilateral relation. To do so, we will apply two experimental surveys in representative samples in both countries; each of them composed by 1,200 participants that will respond an online questionnaire. For each country we will divide the sample into four groups: one of them that will not receive any stimuli, and three treatment groups that will receive the following information: (a) volume of exports to the other country on the entire amount exported to the world; (b) type of exports, distinguishing between primary and industrial; (c) trade balance between both countries. Given the Argentinean growing trade dependence in relation to Brazil, particularly in regard to manufactured products, we expect that Argentineans treated in group (a) or (b) will tend to believe that Argentina has to increase the bilateral relationship. On the other hand, we believe that Brazilians will tend to believe that their country has to increase the bilateral relationship when treated with (b) or (c), due to the sustained trade surplus and the high industrial component of Brazilian exports to Argentina, which has a strong impact on the level of local employment. (AU)