| Grant number: | 10/14221-0 |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |
| Start date: | March 01, 2011 |
| End date: | February 29, 2012 |
| Field of knowledge: | Applied Social Sciences - Economics - International Economy |
| Principal Investigator: | Sérgio Kannebley Júnior |
| Grantee: | João Paulo Martins Terra Baroni |
| Host Institution: | Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto (FEARP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Ribeirão Preto , SP, Brazil |
Abstract The reversal of the balance of the balance of payments current account started in late 2007 and the decline of the trade balance are factors of concern to the Brazilian trade balance in the long term. Since the adoption of flexible exchange regime in January 1999, the real exchange rate has already appreciated 50%. The connection between these facts is still motivating research on the existence of a non-linear relationship between exports and real exchange rate from the perspective of the theory of hysteresis in international trade. Objective is then to test the hypothesis of hysteresis in the Brazilian exports in the period 1999-2010. The test method proposed is an alternative to tests of Parsley and Wei (1993) and Gock (1994, 2001) and is based on an econometric threshold panel data model proposed by Hansen (1999a). The main advance of the test suggested is given the opportunity to capture nonlinearities in the relationship between variables, whereas movements in valuations and devaluations can cause different effects on exports. (AU) | |
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