Effects of sugarcane sector expansion over municipal per capita GDP: models, methods and counterfactuals

• Grant number: 13/14005-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: October 01, 2013
• End date: September 30, 2014
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Agrarian and Natural Resource Economics
• Principal Investigator: Márcia Azanha Ferraz Dias de Moraes
• Grantee: Luiz Fernando Satolo
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The proposed research is going to look at the effects of sugarcane sector expansion over municipal per capita GDP in the light of dynamic spatial panel models and instrumental variable methods. The literature points out this direction as the most appropriate for calculating counterfactuals, which will be used to measure the impact of sugarcane sector expansion over each analyzed municipality. To do so, the research will be divided in three courses of action: to extent the model used in Satolo (2012) to municipalities of MG, GO, MT, MS and PR; to analyze the sensitiveness of estimated coefficients to alternative specifications of the spatial weights matrix; to estimate the hypothetical distribution of municipal per capita GDP under the assumption that sugarcane sector expansion hasn't happened. Since this is an original approach to the problem, the results of this research will represent an important contribution to the existing literature about the socioeconomic impacts of the sugarcane sector.

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

FERRAZ DIAS DE MORAES, MARCIA AZANHA; PIEDADE BACCHI, MIRIAN RUMENOS; CALDARELLI, CARLOS EDUARDO. Accelerated growth of the sugarcane, sugar, and ethanol sectors in Brazil (2000-2008): Effects on municipal gross domestic product per capita in the south-central region. BIOMASS & BIOENERGY, v. 91, p. 116-125, AUG 2016. (13/14005-4)