Association of modeled precipitation and temperature patterns with climate forcing mechanisms as a support to evaluate the sugarcane productivity

• Grant number: 13/15434-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: November 01, 2013
• End date: February 28, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Jurandir Zullo Junior
• Grantee: Vânia Rosa Pereira
• Host Institution: Centro de Pesquisas Meteorológicas e Climáticas Aplicadas à Agricultura (CEPAGRI). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Changes in precipitation dynamics as seasonal shifts and dry spells can have positive or negative impacts on sugarcane productivity. This project aims to give support to sugarcane productivity studies at São Paulo state. The objective is to model the relation between the precipitation spatial-temporal patterns and temperature anomalies with the main climate forcing mechanisms that are related with South America atmospheric dynamics.Time series models will be used to estimate the precipitation and temperature spatial-temporal patterns. The relation between the climate mechanisms and precipitation patterns will be evaluated with the multivariate linear models (canonical correlation) or the non-linear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the Self Organizing Map (SOM). A reason to consider the non-linear ANN is its power to deal with the multi spatial-temporal dimension inputs. The purpose is to build a model that identifies the main precipitation mechanisms to be used as inputs in sugarcane forecast and productivity models. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

ZULLO, JR., JURANDIR; PEREIRA, VANIA ROSA; KOGA-VICENTE, ANDREA. Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region. Climatic Change, v. 149, n. 3-4, p. 489-502, AUG 2018. (13/15434-6, 08/58160-5)

PEREIRA, VANIA ROSA; BLAIN, GABRIEL CONSTANTINO; HEUMINSKI DE AVILA, ANA MARIA; DE MATOS PIRES, REGINA CELIA; PINTOS, HILTON SILVEIRA. Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil. Bragantia, v. 77, n. 1, p. 11-pg., 2018-01-01. (13/15434-6)

PEREIRA, VANIA ROSA; BLAIN, GABRIEL CONSTANTINO; HEUMINSKI DE AVILA, ANA MARIA; DE MATOS PIRES, REGINA CELIA; PINTOS, HILTON SILVEIRA. Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil. Bragantia, v. 77, n. 1, p. 201-211, JAN-MAR 2018. (13/15434-6)