IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF COFFEE TREES IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF BRAZIL

• Grant number: 14/00192-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: July 01, 2014
• End date: January 31, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Chou Sin Chan
• Grantee: Priscila da Silva Tavares
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Brazil holds the major share in coffee world market, ranging from 30% to 39% of the overall production. That fruit - a grain - plays a social role since it maintains the workforce in rural areas, the coffee agribusiness generates above 8 millions of jobs. The Arabica species - the most cultivated grain - requires annual temperatures around 18oC - 22 oC. It is worrying the susceptibility of this culture to great variations of temperature, especially when we take into account the climate projections released by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes. Studies done for Brazil showed that the coffee activity would be directly impacted by the climate changes, with significant reductions of production, leading to financial and social losses. However, such studies have considered only agroclimate zoning of the productive regions. Acknowledging the importance of coffee activity in social and economic Brazilian scenario and the future prognosis of rising air temperatures, the thesis proposal consists of the evaluation of the impacts of the climate changes on the coffee productivity in different future climate scenarios. There will be run the IPCC AR5 new climate scenarios that will be generated from the dynamic downscaling from ETA Regional Model in high spatial resolution (5km). The ETA outputs will be input in the surface model INLAND so as to generate the future coffee in Brazil southeastern areas. INLAND integrates the majority of the processes of Earth surface, including the bold physical and physiological effects of the tree cover, phenology and terrestrial carbon cycle.

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

TAVARES, PRISCILA DA SILVA; GIAROLLA, ANGELICA; CHOU, SIN CHAN; DE PAULA SILVA, ADAN JULIANO; LYRA, ANDRE DE ARRUDA. Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in southeast Brazil. Regional Environmental Change, v. 18, n. 3, p. 873-883, MAR 2018. (14/00192-0)

DERECZYNSKI, CLAUDINE; CHOU, SIN CHAN; LYRA, ANDRE; SONDERMANN, MARCELY; REGOTO, PEDRO; TAVARES, PRISCILA; CHAGAS, DIEGO; GOMES, JORGE LUIS; RODRIGUES, DANIELA CARNEIRO; DE LOS MILAGROS SKANSI, MARIA. Downscaling of climate extremes over South America - Part I: Model evaluation in the reference climate. WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES, v. 29, SEP 2020. (14/00192-0)

LYRA, ANDRE; TAVARES, PRISCILA; CHOU, SIN CHAN; SUEIRO, GUSTAVO; DERECZYNSKI, CLAUDINE; SONDERMANN, MARCELY; SILVA, ADAN; MARENGO, JOSE; GIAROLLA, ANGELICA. Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 132, n. 1-2, p. 663-682, APR 2018. (12/51876-0, 14/00192-0)