Landscape dynamics: a model applied to the city of Carapicuíba

• Grant number: 14/13075-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Effective date (Start): September 01, 2014
• Effective date (End): August 31, 2015
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Physical Geography
• Principal Investigator: Thiago Sanna Freire Silva
• Grantee: Flora Shellard Correa
• Host Institution: Instituto de Geociências e Ciências Exatas (IGCE). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rio Claro. Rio Claro , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The concern with urban areas has been a topic of increasing importance in Brazil, linking the development of new management policies and restructuring of large cities. This discussion includes the question of the loss of natural areas in urban environments, which impact on biodiversity conservation and maintenance of ecosystem services. This study aims to characterize the evolution of Carapicuiba's land cover and land use and modeling future scenarios of change, through an approach based on integrated use of remote sensing, geographic information systems and spatial dynamic models approach. The thematics maps to evaluate the dinamic of space occupation will be elaborate through three aerial photos taking in 1962, 1972, 1994, one orbital image from Ikonos of 2002, and an ortophotos mosaics of 2008. The spacial model LUCC-ME, based on TerraME plataform, will be applied to develop a predictive model for change of landuse, based on the maps previously generated. The chosen dates represents different moments in Carapicuibas's history, referring to two important developments that may have significantly influenced the urban landscape: the large population growth and the construction of the West section of the Rodoanel. Based on the predominance of transition types in the forms of land use, supported by predictive variables such as topography, urban zoning, population growth and increase in revenue of the municipality, the model will generate future scenarios. Knowing the influence of urban phenomena on people and the environment, the results can influence urbanization projects and help with solutions to social and environmental problems arising from the lack of planning in the major centers.