Phenology and phylogenies as tools to understand the effects of climate changes in the tropics

• Grant number: 14/13899-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): October 01, 2014
• Effective date (End): September 30, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Ecosystems Ecology
• Acordo de Cooperação: Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)
• Principal Investigator: Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
• Grantee: Vanessa Graziele Staggemeier
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rio Claro. Rio Claro , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 16/02312-8 - Combining plant distribution and phenology to predict the potential effects of climate change in the tropics, BE.EP.PD

Abstract

Climate change affects plant phenology culminating in temporal displacement such as earlier or later reproduction, with serious consequences for both animals that rely on fertility for food, and for plant communities that undergo alterations in dynamics and dispersal that ultimately change species composition and geographical distribution. The effects of climatic change on tropical plant phenology are still not well understood due to a lack of long-term studies in the tropics to identify changes in phenological responses over time. This project will therefore apply two alternative approaches as tools to understand and predict potential effects of climate change in the tropics, using the Atlantic rainforest and Myrtaceae family as model group. Available phenological data are currently restricted to local scales and short time periods; the first approach will be to assess phylogenetic signal in phenological traits, identifying which tropical families or genera are most sensitive to climate change by presenting more conservative phenology and being confined to a restricted ecological niche. For this analysis, we will use phenological data already collected at 11 Atlantic Forest localities in conjunction with evolutionary reconstructions of these communities. The second approach will combine phenological information and occurrence records based on herbarium collections, subjected to ecological niche modelling. We will focus on the most important family inside this hotspot, Myrtaceae, analysing c. 15,000 specimen records for 70 species (unpublished data). We will predict size, displacement and direction of change in the geographical distribution of this group in light of predicted global warming scenarios. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of how climate change may affect future functioning and dynamics of tropical forests. (AU)

Scientific publications

(7)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

TEIXIDO, A. L.; GUZMAN, B.; STAGGEMEIER, V. G.; VALLADARES, F.. Phylogeny determines flower size-dependent sex allocation at flowering in a hermaphroditic family. Plant Biology, v. 19, n. 6, p. 963-972, NOV 2017. (14/13899-4)

BRITO, V. L. G.; MAIA, F. R.; SILVEIRA, F. A. O.; FRACASSO, C. M.; LEMOS-FILHO, J. P.; FERNANDES, G. W.; GOLDENBERG, R.; MORELLATO, L. P. C.; SAZIMA, M.; STAGGEMEIER, V. G.. Reproductive phenology of Melastomataceae species with contrasting reproductive systems: contemporary and historical drivers. Plant Biology, v. 19, n. 5, p. 806-817, SEP 2017. (14/13899-4, 10/51307-0, 13/50155-0)

OLIVEIRA, HAUANNY RODRIGUES; STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA G.; QUINTINO FARIA, JAIR EUSTAQUIO; DE OLIVEIRA, GUILHERME; DINIZ-FILHO, JOSE ALEXANDRE F.. Geographical ecology and conservation of Eugenia L. (Myrtaceae) in the Brazilian Cerrado: Past, present and future. AUSTRAL ECOLOGY, v. 44, n. 1, p. 95-104, FEB 2019. (14/13899-4)

SOARES, NATALIA COSTA; MARUYAMA, PIETRO KIYOSHI; STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; CERDEIRA MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA; ARAUJO, MARCIO SILVA. The role of individual variation in flowering and pollination in the reproductive success of a crepuscular buzz-pollinated plant. ANNALS OF BOTANY, v. 127, n. 2, p. 213-222, FEB 1 2021. (14/13899-4, 09/54208-6, 10/51307-0, 13/50155-0, 16/02312-8)

STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; GUTIERREZ CAMARGO, MARIA GABRIELA; FELIZOLA DINIZ-FILHO, JOSE ALEXANDRE; FRECKLETON, ROBERT; JARDIM, LUCAS; CERDEIRA MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA. The circular nature of recurrent life cycle events: a test comparing tropical and temperate phenology. JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, v. 108, n. 2, p. 393-404, MAR 2020. (16/02312-8, 14/13899-4, 15/10754-8, 18/14118-7, 13/50155-0)

STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA G.; CAZETTA, ELIANA; CERDEIRA MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA. Hyperdominance in fruit production in the Brazilian Atlantic rain forest: the functional role of plants in sustaining frugivores. Biotropica, v. 49, n. 1, p. 71-82, JAN 2017. (14/13899-4)

STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; GUTIERREZ CAMARGO, MARIA GABRIELA; FELIZOLA DINIZ-FILHO, JOSE ALEXANDRE; FRECKLETON, ROBERT; JARDIM, LUCAS; CERDEIRA MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA. The circular nature of recurrent life cycle events: a test comparing tropical and temperate phenology. JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, SEP 2019. (14/13899-4, 15/10754-8, 16/02312-8, 13/50155-0, 18/14118-7)