Combining plant distribution and phenology to predict the potential effects of climate change in the tropics

• Grant number: 16/02312-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: June 01, 2016
• End date: May 31, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Ecosystems Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
• Grantee: Vanessa Graziele Staggemeier
• Supervisor: Eve Lucas
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rio Claro. Rio Claro , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, England
• Associated to the scholarship: 14/13899-4 - Phenology and phylogenies as tools to understand the effects of climate changes in the tropics, BP.PD

Abstract

Climate change affects plant phenology culminating in temporal shifts such as earlier or later reproduction, detected by the analyses of long-term time series. Phenological changes have serious consequences for both animals that rely on plants for food resource, and for plant communities that undergo alterations in their dynamics and dispersion that ultimately alter species' composition and geographical distribution. The effects of climatic change on tropical plant phenology are still poorly understood mainly due to the lack of long-term studies. Most phenological data from tropical regions are restricted to local scales and short periods of time (1-3 years). This project proposes to apply an alternative approach to understand and predict potential effects of climate change in the tropics. To do it so, we will perform ecological niche modelling combining phenological information and occurrence records extracted from c. 15,000 herbarium records for 50 species of Neotropical Myrtacecae (Myrteae tribe). Myrtaceae is one of the most important families of the Atlantic rainforest, a biodiversity hotspot. We will predict size, displacement and direction of change in the geographical distribution of Myrtaceae in light of future global warming scenarios. The methodological novelty here is to incorporate phenology into ecological niche models to predict species sensitivity to global changes and to depict the relationship between phenological plasticity and species range. In addition, considering the reconstruction of Myrtaceae evolutionary relationships, we will assess the phylogenetic signal in phenological and distributional traits to identify clade sensitivity to climate change. Our study will provide a comprehensive assessment of how climate change may affect future functioning and dynamics of tropical forests. (AU)

Scientific publications

(5)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

SOARES, NATALIA COSTA; MARUYAMA, PIETRO KIYOSHI; STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; CERDEIRA MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA; ARAUJO, MARCIO SILVA. The role of individual variation in flowering and pollination in the reproductive success of a crepuscular buzz-pollinated plant. ANNALS OF BOTANY, v. 127, n. 2, p. 213-222, FEB 1 2021. (14/13899-4, 09/54208-6, 10/51307-0, 13/50155-0, 16/02312-8)

STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; GUTIERREZ CAMARGO, MARIA GABRIELA; FELIZOLA DINIZ-FILHO, JOSE ALEXANDRE; FRECKLETON, ROBERT; JARDIM, LUCAS; CERDEIRA MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA. The circular nature of recurrent life cycle events: a test comparing tropical and temperate phenology. JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, v. 108, n. 2, p. 393-404, MAR 2020. (16/02312-8, 14/13899-4, 15/10754-8, 18/14118-7, 13/50155-0)

LUGHADHA, EIMEAR M. NIC; STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; VASCONCELOS, THAIS N. C.; WALKER, BARNABY E.; CANTEIRO, CATIA; LUCAS, EVE J.. Harnessing the potential of integrated systematics for conservation of taxonomically complex, megadiverse plant groups. Conservation Biology, v. 33, n. 3, p. 511-522, JUN 2019. (16/02312-8)

STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; GUTIERREZ CAMARGO, MARIA GABRIELA; FELIZOLA DINIZ-FILHO, JOSE ALEXANDRE; FRECKLETON, ROBERT; JARDIM, LUCAS; CERDEIRA MORELLATO, LEONOR PATRICIA. The circular nature of recurrent life cycle events: a test comparing tropical and temperate phenology. JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, SEP 2019. (14/13899-4, 15/10754-8, 16/02312-8, 13/50155-0, 18/14118-7)

SANTOS, MATHEUS FORTES; LUCAS, EVE; SANO, PAULO TAKEO; BUERKI, SVEN; STAGGEMEIER, VANESSA GRAZIELE; FOREST, FELIX. Biogeographical patterns of Myrcia s.l. (Myrtaceae) and their correlation with geological and climatic history in the Neotropics. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, v. 108, p. 34-48, MAR 2017. (16/02312-8, 12/14914-1, 10/09473-0)