Background: Changes in lipid profile, fasting blood glucose and blood pressure, along with abdominal obesity, are risk factors for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS), increasing the chances of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus, therefore, it is an important indicator of risk for premature death. These clinical signs are directly related to low levels of physical activity (PA), a very common condition in the population of developed and developing countries. Although longitudinal researches allow to establish a relationship of cause and effect, this study design is still little developed in Brazil, especially when it concerns the relationship between PA and development of chronic diseases such as MetS. Aim: To investigate the relationship between physical activity, occurrence of risk factors for metabolic syndrome and complications in users of the public health system in a historical series study of eight-year. Methods: A random sample stratified by age (e 50 years old) was selected among the main Basic Health Units in each region (north, south, east, west and center) of the city of Bauru, Sao Paulo. The sample size calculation indicated the need for follow-up of 960 patients. Through surveys by directed interview, physical examination and medical records analysis will be obtained data on the occurrence of risk factors for MetS, physical activity, complications and hospitalizations, economic status, education, smoking and nutritional status. This proposal is being developed in five stages distributed between 2009 and 2017. In the first stage (2009-2010) each patient attended to his Basic Health Unit (BHU) of origin where it was held a interview, physical examination and review of medical records. In the second (2011-2012) and third stages (2013-2014) the interviews took place by telephone, while the data collection in clinical records followed the same routine of the first step. In the fourth (2015) and fifth (2017) stages, the same procedures as the first stage will be adopted, with face-to-face interviews and physical evaluation. In the statistical analysis, because it is a historical series study, the main analysis will be conducted using the Cox regression, hazard ratios (HR) and their respective confidence intervals of 95% (HRIC95%). Statistical significance will be set at values below 5%.
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