Preferences and Public Policy Congruence

• Grant number: 16/13199-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: November 01, 2016
• End date: December 31, 2020
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - Public Policies
• Principal Investigator: Lorena Guadalupe Barberia
• Grantee: Natália de Paula Moreira
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 11/08536-1 - Political institutions, executive-legislative relationship and government performance, AP.TEM
• Associated scholarship(s): 17/11559-0 - Using dynamic compositional models to study public opinion and taxation in Brazil, BE.EP.DR

Abstract

The congruence between enacted policy and voters' preferences is a central measure of a well-functioning democratic government. This research analyzes policy congruence over time. This project contributes to this research body in two ways. First, this project focuses on analyses that consider the dynamics of preferences and policies over time. We argue that the memory of these phenomena is shown through the effect of their lags. For instance, in public policy, the lagged variable can also capture "learning effects." By omitting these lagged variables, a model may incur the problem of omitted variable bias. Furthermore, by examining these phenomena using time series analysis, we estimate the short and long-term effects of changes in public policies on voter preferences and vice-versa. The second contribution of this project lies in the emphasis on analyzing the interrelationship between preferences and public policies. Interrelationship means that there is a feedback effect between preferences and policies. Voters adjust their preferences based on the policies implemented by their representatives and that representatives adopt policies taking into account their voters' preferences. This project's methodological innovation lies in examining the interrelationship between these phenomena in a system of equations considering politics and preferences as endogenous variables and treating them symmetrically. Such innovation has significant implications for understanding these phenomena' relationship, how we tested it, and the results found. Therefore, in this project, we explore the relationship between policies and preferences employing different measurements of these phenomena, methods, and analyses. In this way, this project contributes substantially to the literature since it analyzes and tests fundamental questions for political science using different theoretical and methodological tools.

Scientific publications

(4)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

BARBERIA, LORENA G.; CANTARELLI, LUIZ G. R.; CLARO DE FARIA OLIVEIRA, MARIA LETICIA; MOREIRA, NATALIA DE PAULA; COSTA ROSA, ISABEL SEELAENDER. The effect of state-level social distancing policy stringency on mobility in the states of Brazil. Rev. Adm. Pública, v. 55, n. 1, p. 27-49, JAN-FEB 2021. (18/20853-1, 13/15658-1, 16/13199-8)

BARBERIA, LORENA G.; CLARO OLIVEIRA, MARIA LETICIA; JUNQUEIRA, ANDREA; MOREIRA, NATALIA DE PAULA; WHITTEN, GUY D.. Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior. SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY, v. 102, n. 5, SI, AUG 2021. (16/13199-8)

LORENA BARBERIA; NATÁLIA DE PAULA MOREIRA; REBECA DE JESUS CARVALHO; MARIA LETICIA CLARO OLIVEIRA; ISABEL SEELAENDER COSTA ROSA; MARCELA ZAMUDIO. The Relationship between Ideology and COVID-19 Deaths: What We Know and What We Still Need to Know. Brazilian Political Science Review, v. 16, n. 3, 2022-10-24. (21/08772-9, 16/13199-8)

BARBERIA, LORENA G.; CANTARELLI, LUIZ G. R.; CLARO DE FARIA OLIVEIRA, MARIA LETICIA; MOREIRA, NATALIA DE PAULA; COSTA ROSA, ISABEL SEELAENDER. The effect of state-level social distancing policy stringency on mobility in the states of Brazil. Rev. Adm. Pública, v. 55, n. 1, p. 23-pg., 2021-01-01. (13/15658-1, 18/20853-1, 16/13199-8)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

MOREIRA, Natália de Paula. Three Essays on Elections and Economic Voting. 2021. Doctoral Thesis - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH/SBD) São Paulo.