Complexity applied to the study of investment dynamics: an agent based model inspired by Kalecki

• Grant number: 16/17987-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: December 01, 2016
• End date: May 31, 2018
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Economic Theory
• Agreement: Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)
• Principal Investigator: Gilberto Tadeu Lima
• Grantee: Adriano dos Reis Miranda Laureno Oliveira
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Despite advances in recent years, the traditional methodology faces difficulties to deal with economic issues involving, for example, heterogeneity, nonlinearity, imperfect information and interaction among agents. The complexity approach places these factors in the center of its analysis offering us a practicable and appropriate alternative to overcome these difficulties. Our project proposes to study the dynamics of investment in a complex adaptive system. Dealing with the determinants and consequences of investment is problematic under the traditional assumptions. We propose the development of an agent based simulation model (ABM) inspired by the ideas of Michal Kalecki, which mimic stylized facts of empirical literature on investment and embody growth and innovation, by using Neo-Schumpeterian insights. We intend to contribute to the literature by incorporating to the model an interactive feature between firms, with respect to their decisions on how much to invest, by using optimism rules. This feature has not been addressed by prominent models of the literature as Possas et al. (2001) and Dosi et al. (2010), which will serve us as a reference, and may contribute to improving the understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the dynamics of investment. It will enable us to study phenomena as contagion, confidence crises, and even the Kaleckian concept of "Investment Strikes" (if it emerges and under which conditions in our system). (AU)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

OLIVEIRA, Adriano dos Reis Miranda Laureno. An agent based model of complex investment dynamics along kaleckian lines. 2018. Master's Dissertation - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA/SBD) São Paulo.