Abstract
Natural disasters can be defined as events capable of causing serious disturbances in a society generating environmental, economic and social damages, and its degree of devastation is a factor directly related to the vulnerability of the affected community. Risk assessment is of utmost importance for planning and preventing such events in order to create more resilient communities, that is, able to withstand, absorb and recover from the effects of disasters. Statistics is a science that makes it possible to quantify the randomness occurrence of natural events by providing means of analysis and observation. In this context, this research aims to study the natural disasters generated by the rainfall in the administrative region of Marília through statistical methods, in order to create a mapping of the main points susceptible to catastrophic events considering the geographic and population characteristics of the affected sites. The methodology applied will be based on the quantitative data collection of rainfall triggering natural disasters in the 51 municipalities of the region, through a survey of the databases of the Department of Water and Electricity, National Water Agency and CEMADEN (National Monitoring and Natural Disaster Alerts Center), in the period of 2009 to 2016. With the information obtained, histograms will be carried out in order to obtain the probability distribution related to the probability of occurrence of disasters unleashed by hydrological events. Therefore, through the Monte Carlo Simulation, executed by the software Palisade @ Risk, it will be possible to analyze the occurrence risks of the events according to the vulnerability of the sites, considering their physical, population, economic, geological and geomorphological characteristics. (AU)
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