Abstract
In the last decade, there has been a significant increasing of the number of natural disasters on a world scale, and it is not being different in Brazil and more specifically in the State of São Paulo. This increasing is due to factors such as the growth of urbanization leading to unsuitable buildings and deforestation on hillsides leading to various social and economic problems and loss of human life. Therefore, it is necessary providing studies to a better understanding of the triggering factors and the communities' response capacity. Thus, this research project aims to obtain a hazard map of mass movement in the region of the Paraíba Valley and North Coast of the state of São Paulo. In order to do so, a previous study of the mentioned regions will be made, considering geomorphology, geology, hydrography and land use and occupation. In addition, two non-grant scientific initiations are being developed, one of them by the applicant, in which the geographic coordinates and the code of COBRADE (Brazilian Code of Disasters) are being inserted into the IPMet / Unesp database of natural disasters including all natural disasters in the state of São Paulo from 1996 to 2016. This turn possible both the spatialization of occurrences and the interaction with the official database of Civil Defense. Up to now, disasters are available in the database according to the municipality, and a more detailed study of the physical characteristics is not possible, analyzing the environmental fragility. The data will be analyzed statistically according to the occurrence numbers and the location using the software TerraView software. Following that, it will be chosen the events with greater number of damages and it will seek to obtain the daily rains, 3 days, 7 days and 30 days before the date of the occurrence for analysis of the triggering agent. Once the previous study have ended, the analysis of the hazard of occurrence of earth movements in the region will be made, taking as an initial reference the methodology proposed by FERREIRA (2012), but also including rain. It will be evaluated factors such as slope slopes, slope amplitude, slope breaking lines and exposed soil area and vegetation in the site, and for each one, by weighing a percentage in the contribution of the hazard of occurrence. (AU)
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