Possible increase of soybean production in Mato Grosso based on climate change projections

• Grant number: 18/21782-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: February 01, 2019
• End date: May 31, 2020
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Giulia Vitória Simioni Dias
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 19/10091-0 - Potential increase of soybean production in Mato Grosso-Brazil based on crop modelling simulations and large-scale climate change models, BE.EP.IC

Abstract

Soybean (Glycine Max L.) is an oleaginous plant belonging to the Fabaceae family, is one of the most important crops for the production of oil and protein (FAO, 2018). In the 2017/18 harvest, Brazil produced 119 million Mg (CONAB, 2018). Agricultural development in the Brazilian Midwest has grown significantly over the past 15 years, with soybean growing at around 200% (CONAB, 2001 and 2018). The world consumption of soybeans follows the same pattern of development (USDA, 2002 and 2018) and, according to FAO (2014), this increase is due to population growth, from a population of 9 billion people, by 2050. This increase in population, associated with climate change and the possibility of scarcity of water and land resources, requires studies and forecasts of production to meet a demand for global resources. Based on future scenario simulations, the DSSAT / CROPGRO-Soybean agrometeorological model, obtain data on growth and development of the crop can be obtained in this way, obtaining data to quantify the real and potential production, and at the same time, the yield gap (YG). The YG closing would determine a production capacity that is additionally possible in the pre-existing area for a particular crop and region. In the present project, it's intend to quantify the increase of soybean production to the state of Mato Grosso based on the probabilities of climate change and a technological gain until 2050, taking into account the possibilities of closing the YG in the State, water use and the future climate scenarios.