Evaluation of simulations of climate models on Southeastern Brazil and future changes in a global warming scenario

• Grant number: 19/12015-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: August 01, 2019
• End date: July 31, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Edmilson Dias de Freitas
• Grantee: Thamiris Luisa de Oliveira Brandão Campos
• Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 15/03804-9 - Environmental governance of macrometropolis paulista in face of climate variability, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

The weather and climate over a region are determinant of several aspects, from the regime of precipitation and type of vegetation to the level of economic development. Brazil, as a continental country, has a variety of climatic regimes, including tropical regions with abundant rainfall, semi-arid areas with scarce rainfall, and temperate regions. Faced with a global warming scenario due to increased greenhouse gases emissions, climate models are essential in order to assess, mitigate and/or adapt to climate change. However, for future climate projections to be reliable, climate models must be able to simulate the present climate system satisfactorily. The diversity of Brazilian climate regimes makes it crucial to assess climate models, which should have the ability to simulate both tropical and extratropical phenomena. In this sense, this project aims to evaluate the ability of the models to simulate the main patterns of weather and climate over the southeast of Brazil and also evaluate future projections. For this purpose, the results of the simulations with the models of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which is a coupled modeling group that establishes the protocols for present and future climate simulations, will be evaluated.

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

MACHADO, CAROLYNE B.; CAMPOS, THAMIRIS L. O. B.; ABOU RAFEE, SAMEH A.; MARTINS, JORGE A.; GRIMM, ALICE M.; DE FREITAS, EDMILSON D.. xtreme Rainfall Events in the Macrometropolis of Sao Paulo: Trends and Connection with Climate Oscillation. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v. 60, n. 5, p. 661-675, MAY 2021. (19/12015-9, 15/03804-9)

CAMPOS, THAMIRIS B.; SAPUCCI, LUIZ F.; EICHHOLZ, CRISTIANO; MACHADO, LUIZ A. T.; ADAMS, DAVID K.. The Sensitivityof GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Jumps to Intense Precipitation Associated with Tropical Organized Convective Systems. ATMOSPHERE, v. 14, n. 2, p. 18-pg., 2023-02-01. (09/15235-8, 15/14497-0, 15/03804-9, 19/12015-9)

MACHADO, CAROLYNE B.; CAMPOS, THAMIRIS L. O. B.; ABOU RAFEE, SAMEH A.; MARTINS, JORGE A.; GRIMM, ALICE M.; DE FREITAS, EDMILSON D.. Extreme Rainfall Events in the Macrometropolis of Sao Paulo: Trends and Connection with Climate Oscillations. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v. 60, n. 5, p. 15-pg., 2021-05-01. (15/03804-9, 19/12015-9)