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Modelling towards elimination of malaria in Brazilian Amazon

Grant number: 19/26310-2
Support type:Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): September 01, 2020
Effective date (End): June 30, 2021
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Physics - General Physics
Principal Investigator:Roberto André Kraenkel
Grantee:Caroline Franco
Supervisor abroad: Lisa Jane White
Home Institution: Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de São Paulo. São Paulo , SP, Brazil
Local de pesquisa : University of Oxford, England  
Associated to the scholarship:17/26770-8 - Mathematical models in Population Biology from time-series: applications to Epidemiology and Ecology, BP.DR

Abstract

This project aims the development of a detailed dynamical system model to describe malaria epidemiology inside Brazilian Amazon, where currently over 99% of Brazilian malaria cases occur.The modelling shall be strongly oriented by historic information, experimental literature, consultation with clinical researchers and fitting using an extensive database of malaria incidence throughout Brazil, obtained from the System on Diseases of Compulsory Declaration (SINAN).Connecting with our main FAPESP PhD Project, we shall improve our modelling using time series analysis methods on this dataset, together with meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation and humidity time series. This could lead not only to better fitting, but better selection of significant variables do plug into themodel.Beyond understanding and reproducing the disease's dynamics until now, we should be able to simulate the effect of various intervention scenarios, evaluate their impact and come up with the best possible elimination strategy, tailored specifically for the Brazilian circumstances.