Modelling towards elimination of malaria in Brazilian Amazon

• Grant number: 19/26310-2
• Support type: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): September 01, 2020
• Effective date (End): June 30, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Physics - General Physics
• Principal researcher: Roberto André Kraenkel
• Grantee: Caroline Franco
• Supervisor abroad: Lisa Jane White
• Home Institution: Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de São Paulo. São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Research place: University of Oxford, England
• Associated to the scholarship: 17/26770-8 - Mathematical models in Population Biology from time-series: applications to Epidemiology and Ecology, BP.DR

Abstract

This project aims the development of a detailed dynamical system model to describe malaria epidemiology inside Brazilian Amazon, where currently over 99% of Brazilian malaria cases occur.The modelling shall be strongly oriented by historic information, experimental literature, consultation with clinical researchers and fitting using an extensive database of malaria incidence throughout Brazil, obtained from the System on Diseases of Compulsory Declaration (SINAN).Connecting with our main FAPESP PhD Project, we shall improve our modelling using time series analysis methods on this dataset, together with meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation and humidity time series. This could lead not only to better fitting, but better selection of significant variables do plug into themodel.Beyond understanding and reproducing the disease's dynamics until now, we should be able to simulate the effect of various intervention scenarios, evaluate their impact and come up with the best possible elimination strategy, tailored specifically for the Brazilian circumstances.