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Resilience analysis of distribution systems using probabilistic networks

Grant number: 21/12220-1
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct)
Effective date (Start): April 01, 2022
Field of knowledge:Engineering - Electrical Engineering - Power Systems
Principal Investigator:Carlos Dias Maciel
Grantee:Henrique de Oliveira Caetano
Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
Associated scholarship(s):23/07634-7 - Using probabilistic networks to allocate resources in a power distribution system, BE.EP.DD


The resilience and reliability analysis of electric power systems in response to failures and disruptive events is an area of growing interest today, as these systems are considered Critical Infrastructures (CIs), whose full functioning is essential for society. In particular, given the interest in analyzing how a given variable affects both other variables and the response of the system as a whole, there is a need to model causality relations in a power system. One of the approaches to this problem is the usage of causal inference using Bayesian networks, given its ability to deal with uncertainties, as well as its differentiation between conditional probabilities and interventions. This project aims to model a dynamic Bayesian network, capable of analyzing and structuring the evolution of a distribution system over time, considering its response to failures. For this, a two-layer model will be used: the operational layer, responsible for simulating the system dynamics and extracting data from its variables; and the management layer, which will establish different resilience metrics for the system, based on data extracted from the operational layer, using them to build the causal network itself. (AU)

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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
FOGLIATTO, M. S. S.; CAETANO, H. O.; DESUO N, L.; MASSIGNAN, J. A. D.; FANUCCHI, R. Z.; LONDON, J. B. A.; PEREIRA, B. R.; BESSANI, M.; MACIEL, C. D.. Power distribution system interruption duration model using reliability. Electric Power Systems Research, v. 211, p. 12-pg., . (18/19150-6, 21/12220-1, 14/50851-0)
DESUO, N. LUIZ; FOGLIATTO, MATHEUS S. S.; CAETANO, HENRIQUE O.; PEREIRA, J. BENVINDO R.; LONDON J, J. JOAO B. A.; MACIEL, CARLOS D.. A Multilayer System and Optimization Framework for Team Dispatch Towards Service Recovery. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, v. N/A, p. 14-pg., . (19/07665-4, 21/12220-1, 14/50851-0, 18/19150-6)
CAETANO, HENRIQUE O.; DESUO, N. LUIZ; FOGLIATTO, MATHEUS S. S.; MACIEL, CARLOS D.. Distribution systems cost reduction based on switches upgrades: A stochastic. Electric Power Systems Research, v. 216, p. 6-pg., . (14/50851-0, 21/12220-1, 19/06531-4, 18/19150-6)

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