Climate change impact on wheat yield and climate long-term trends in Kansas-USA

• Grant number: 22/05705-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: November 01, 2022
• End date: February 28, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Octavia Manoela Matos Tavares
• Supervisor: Bruno Carneiro e Pedreira
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Kansas State University, United States
• Associated to the scholarship: 21/14257-0 - Trend analysis in the historical series of climate and sugarcane productivity variables in Piracicaba-SP, BP.IC

Abstract

It is important to study the crop response to future climate scenarios due to climate changes affecting the Earth. Wheat is a major crop in Kansas, USA, given its role in food security. It is expected that climate change would affect crop yield in the future, and this project aims to analyze long-term climate data series in the State of Kansas to understand the impact that climate change has already caused on the weather variables, based on non-parametric statistics equations of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt to study trends and breaks in the data, respectively. In addition, we also intend to analyze the crop yield trend using a process-based crop model (DSSAT-CERES-Wheat), to check if and how the weather has already affected the long-term wheat yields. This study would demonstrate the importance of knowing whether climate change is affecting crop growth and development. Thus, with this knowledge, cropping systems can be adapted to upcoming climates ensuring food security. (AU)