Development of an approach to social resilience in drought studies

• Grant number: 22/15054-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: January 01, 2023
• End date: November 30, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Public Health
• Agreement: Belmont Forum
• Principal Investigator: Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
• Grantee: Karina Simone Sass
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 19/23393-4 - MADIS Management of Disaster Risk and Societal Resilience (MADIS), AP.R

Abstract

The literature lacks a clear consensus on which indicators should be used under which conditions to model drought resilience and vulnerability. There are also different definitions of resilience and vulnerability. The institutional and infrastructural dimensions of resilience have not been fully addressed. The objective is to identify and propose a new approach to the connections between hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and/or relevant indicators in the face of drought events, with an emphasis on infrastructure and institutional capacity indicators. Method: A literature review on the most used risk and drought resilience indicators. Through the application of the online Delphi method to a group of international experts from different regions of the world, the indicators most indicated by the group will be refined, based on effectiveness, quality, and the scale available to assess resilience and social vulnerability to droughts. Based on relevance, indicators will be selected for two scenarios (two regions) with distinct socioeconomic, ecological, and technological characteristics, including factors related to the impact of climate change at the regional level. The weights that represent the strength of the association between resilience and vulnerability of the indicators will be estimated, which will provide subsidies for the elaboration of a decision tool to support public policies. Expected Outcomes: Increase knowledge about the importance of institutional and infrastructure factors to improve resilience to extreme drought disasters, and expand the use of evidence-based decisions in public policy decision-making processes. This is a research project approved under the FAPESP/BELMONT FORUM cooperation call, developed in partnership with Penn State University (PSU) (USA) and Cranfield University (CRAN) (UK).