Trends in Historical Production Series: Quantifying climatic and technological influences.

• Grant number: 24/10570-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: May 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Octavia Manoela Matos Tavares
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Brazilian agribusiness occupies a prominent position in the world economy, with soybean being the main crop and Brazil leading global production, reaching 147.8 million tons in the 2023/2024 harvest, with the states of Mato Grosso, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul as the largest producers, while Bahia and Pará are emerging in the agricultural expansion of this grain. This productivity is influenced by natural factors, such as climate and soil; artificial factors, such as technologies and inputs; and socio-economic factors, such as incentive policies. However, increasing climate variability, with changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in CO¿, has had a negative impact on agriculture. Technological advances, such as improved cultivars and optimized management, have mitigated these impacts, although studies show that these technologies are not yet completely effective in compensating for losses in extreme weather events. This study therefore highlights the importance of separating the effects of climate variables from technological advances in order to better understand crop responses to adversity. To this end, historical soybean productivity series will be analyzed in Diamantino/MT, Londrina/PR, Santa Maria/RS, Barreiras/BA and Conceição do Araguaia/PA, areas chosen for their relevance. Using process-based models and regression analysis, the aim is to isolate the contribution of climate and technology in increasing productivity, allowing for a more accurate assessment of the role of agricultural innovations. The hypothesis is that technological trends have reduced the damage caused by adverse weather conditions, contributing to maintaining and increasing productivity, even in the face of unfavorable conditions.