ESTIMATION OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION IN ENERGY COMMUNITIES CONSIDERING EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

• Grant number: 25/07372-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: July 01, 2025
• End date: May 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Joel David Melo Trujillo
• Grantee: Cristhian Anderson Lopez Castillo
• Host Institution: Centro de Engenharia, Modelagem e Ciências Sociais Aplicadas (CECS). Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC). Ministério da Educação (Brasil). Santo André , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/14894-8 - SUSTAINABLE PLANNING OF POWER DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS WITH ENERGY COMMUNITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AP.R

Abstract

The variability and unpredictability of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation due to extreme weather events, such as heat waves and cold fronts, pose a significant challenge for operating and planning electricity distribution networks. These events can affect solar energy production by altering solar radiation patterns and temperatures, directly impacting the efficiency of solar installations. Accurately predicting these events and their impacts is essential to ensure the resilience of energy communities connected to the electricity grid. In this context, the overall objective of this project is to develop a model that estimates solar PV generation considering extreme weather events, targeting a one-week horizon. The study area will be the municipality of Santo André, in ABC Paulista, Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The research will use observed and projected irradiance and temperature data on a daily scale to develop a robust predictive model. (AU)