Modeling of Ecosystem Services for the State of São Paulo under Climate Change Scenarios

• Grant number: 25/14430-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: August 01, 2025
• End date: May 31, 2029
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Danilo Boscolo
• Grantee: Raini Tarantino Coutinho
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Ribeirão Preto (FFCLRP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Ribeirão Preto , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 20/06694-8 - BIOTA SYNTHESIS - Nucleus of Analysis and Synthesis of Nature-Based Solutions, AP.BTA.NPOP

Abstract

São Paulo state is the second-largest agricultural producer in Brazil, and its productivity relies heavily on the ecosystem services (ES) of pollination and pest control. Landscape composition and configuration play a central role in the provision of these services, while predictive models are powerful tools for better understanding the relationship between landscape structure and ES provision. Recent advances have led to the development of a robust model for pollination provision; however, there is still a lack of satisfactory models that capture the complexity of pest control ES within a spatial context. Furthermore, effective territorial management requires a better understanding of how pollination and pest control interact with other ES, especially in a context of rapid land-use change and climate change that threaten the integrity of these services. In this context, we propose three objectives aimed at developing tools to support public policies focused on maintaining ES in agricultural landscapes: (1) investigate the relationships between pollination, pest control, and other services-such as climate regulation, water cycling, nutrient cycling, and erosion control-through a comprehensive literature review, characterizing synergies, neutral relationships, and trade-offs; (2) develop a spatially explicit pest control provision model that integrates climatic, ecological, and landscape variables; and (3) assess the impacts of climate change and land-use change on the provision of pest control and pollination services using future scenario projections. We expect to deliver valuable knowledge and tools to guide management strategies and decision-making, fostering multifunctional landscapes that simultaneously support agricultural productivity and environmental conservation in the face of ongoing global change. (AU)