Political Competition at the Local Level and Changes in Electoral Rules: Evidence from the São Paulo City Council Elections (2012-2020)

• Grant number: 25/08210-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: July 01, 2025
• End date: June 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - Political Behavior
• Principal Investigator: George Avelino Filho
• Grantee: João Henrique Nóbrega Silva
• Host Institution: Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (EAESP). Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 19/27645-8 - Electoral strategies and public policies: what is the importance of municipalities?, AP.TEM

Abstract

The objective of this research is to assess the impact of electoral rules on political competition at the local level in light of recent changes in electoral legislation. According to specialized literature, the Brazilian electoral system, governed by proportional open-list rules in high-magnitude districts, stimulates intraparty competition and the individual action of politicians. Under this set of rules, candidates from the same party compete for the same votes, as it is the individual candidate's performance that determines their position on the list.Candidates for federal deputy seek to obtain the maximum number of votes while spending the minimum amount of resources, with a particular focus on concentrating their votes. Unlike systems with single-member districts-such as the U.S. system-in high-magnitude proportional systems, it is possible to be elected by securing small portions of the electorate. Thus, the main strategy for a candidate seeking election would be to create "informal districts" and concentrate all efforts in these strongholds. This research aims to advance this debate by evaluating the impact of electoral rules on political competition at the local level. More specifically, we will assess how recent changes in electoral legislation have impacted the strategies adopted by candidates for city council in São Paulo between 2012 and 2020. The choice of the local level and the period in question is appropriate for several reasons. Unlike federal deputy elections, where districts are territorially large, city council candidates seek votes in smaller spatial territories. As a result, candidates either concentrate their efforts in a few neighborhoods, creating their "electoral strongholds," or spread their efforts across the entire city.Regarding the selected period (2012-2020), it is particularly interesting as it coincides with changes in electoral legislation. During the 2012 elections, candidates could receive campaign donations from corporations, and parties could form coalitions. In the 2016 elections, corporate financing was banned, and in 2020, the prohibition of coalitions in proportional races took effect. With these changes over time, it will be possible to assess the impact of these modifications on political competition in city council elections in São Paulo.The end of corporate financing, in effect since 2015, may have affected both the profile of candidates and the electoral strategies they adopted. With fewer resources available for campaign financing, it is possible that the spatial distribution pattern of votes for city council candidates also changed. In the case of the end of coalitions, parties will now compete individually for seats in the City Council. Until the 2018 elections, parties that formed coalitions for majoritarian races could also form coalitions for proportional elections, provided these were a subset of the former. With the legislative change banning coalitions in proportional elections, it is expected that the number of parties represented in the legislature will decrease.To assess the impact of changes in electoral legislation on political competition and the spatial distribution of votes for city council candidates in São Paulo, we will use the data infrastructure organized by Cepespdata. The list of polling station addresses for each election will also be utilized. Using this list, all polling locations in São Paulo will be geolocated through a georeferencing platform developed within the Cepespdata project (GeoLV). (AU)