Advanced search
Start date
Betweenand


Coping with hydrological risks through flooding risk index, complex watershed modeling, different calibration techniques, and ensemble streamflow forecasting

Full text
Author(s):
Danielle de Almeida Bressiani
Total Authors: 1
Document type: Doctoral Thesis
Press: São Carlos.
Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC/SBD)
Defense date:
Examining board members:
Eduardo Mario Mendiondo; Walter Collischonn; Roberto Andre Kraenkel; Suzana Maria Gico Lima Montenegro; Angel Luis Aldana Valverde
Advisor: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo; Raghavan Srinivasan
Abstract

The economic and social losses of environmental disasters are increasingly higher. Floods are a main concern in many locations around the world. Preventive actions are urgent and necessary. This doctoral thesis addresses topics related to hydro-meteorological risks and water resources management. Its aim is to cope with hydrological risks and water resources management through a flooding risk index, complex watershed modeling, different calibration techniques, and ensemble streamflow forecasting. Specific assumptions and research questions are defined in each chapter of the thesis, and are mostly related to the 12,600 km2 Piracicaba watershed, in Southeast, Brazil. Chapter one has general introductions and explains how the thesis is organized. Chapter two brings an assessment and mapping of flooding risks. Chapter three reviews the watershed modelling topic, through applications of a selected watershed model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) in Brazil. Chapter four proposes a good practice methodology for calibration of watershed models for different time-steps with available data, having hydrology as main focus. Chapter five explores different methodologies for calibrating hydrological models, using two optimization algorithms and with a multi-site and single site approaches to evaluate related changes in performance. Chapter six has complex watershed modeling for sub-daily time-step, with an automatic hourly calibration module that was included in SWAT-CUP and the application of these models to forecast ensemble streamflow and with a data assimilation approach with optimization to improve the quality of the forecasts. Chapter seven has overall conclusions and chapter eight has a summarized list of other activities developed during the doctoral process. Overall we believe the methodologies and results for the Piracicaba watershed are very good. And that they can be replicated in other watersheds in Brazil and around the world. The proposed mapping assessments of flooding vulnerability and risks can be applied for the entire Brazil, and could be used as a tool in water resources management and planning. The watershed model (SWAT) used on this doctoral thesis also proved to be a versatile and robust model, with several good example applications in Brazil, and in particular for the Piracicaba case study. The step by step calibration methodology, as well as the different calibrations performed can help other modelers on choosing where and how to calibrate their own models. For hourly application, this work is pioneer, in area scale and model used. The results for ensemble flow forecasting and data assimilation show a little of what can be performed with this kind of application, and that it can be a potential tool for real time applications in streamflow forecasting and early warning systems. We believe the lessons learnt in this thesis can improve and aid modeler and water resources managers worldwide. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 11/10929-1 - Integrated web-mapping decision support system of hydrologic risks in urban basins
Grantee:Danielle de Almeida Bressiani
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct)