Full text
| |
| Author(s): |
Raphael Ximenes
Total Authors: 1
|
| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Medicina (FM/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2017-05-05 |
| Examining board members: |
Eduardo Massad;
Raymundo Soares de Azevedo Neto;
Marcelo Nascimento Burattini;
Claudio José Struchiner;
Dirce Maria Trevisan Zanetta
|
| Advisor: | Eduardo Massad |
| Abstract | |
The World Health Organization estimates that 3,9 billion people in 128 countries currently live in areas at risk of dengue worldwide, and that 390 (284-528) million infections occur annually, of which 96 (67 -136) million cases with clinical manifestations. It is estimated that 500,000 cases of dengue hemorrhagic occur annually, many of them in children, causing thousands of deaths (Bhatt et al., 2013; WHO, 2015a). Urbanization, overpopulation, agglomeration, poverty, weakened public health infrastructure, and global demographic changes are factors that interfere with the incidence of dengue and contribute to the perpetuation and increasing number of cases of the disease (Farmer, 1996; Guzmán and Kouri, 2002). In addition to these factors, international travel also increase in the incidence of dengue, because an infected traveller may introduce new strains from different parts of the world when they arrive at their destination, or when they return home with the disease (Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005). Brazil hosted the 2014 FIFA World Cup and hosted the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, two of the biggest modern sporting events, and it was predicted that each event would receive hundreds of thousands of tourists in each of events. Although a vaccine against dengue exists, its efficacy is not sufficient for the broad and short-term prevention of the susceptible population. As a result, this work intends, through mathematical modelling, to estimate the risk of contagion of dengue for non-immune tourists in Brazil during the period of 2014 FIFA World Cup in each of the 12 host cities of the event and also estimate the risk of contagion of dengue for non-immune tourists in Brazil during the period of Rio 2016 Olympic Games. During the FIFA World Cup, the risk obtained ranged from 3,61x10-6 in the best scenario up to 8,33x10-4 in the worst case scenario. For the Olympic Games, the worst individual risk was 5.84x10-5 (IC 95%: 5.21x10-5 - 6.47x10-5) (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 12/18463-4 - Risk of dengue for tourists in Brazil during FIFA World Cup 2014 and Olympic Games - Rio 2016, using mathematical modeling |
| Grantee: | Raphael Ximenes |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct) |