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| Author(s): |
Ítalo Beltrão Sposito
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Instituto de Relações Internacionais (IRI) |
| Defense date: | 2016-03-24 |
| Examining board members: |
João Paulo Candia Veiga;
Shiguenoli Miyamoto;
Amâncio Jorge Silva Nunes de Oliveira;
Janina Onuki
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| Advisor: | João Paulo Candia Veiga |
| Abstract | |
This thesis object is the foreign policy restructuring (FPR) - conceptualized as the most radical, encompassing, and fast changes in foreign policy. To analyze this phenomenon, there will be sought the main conjuncture conditions that might enhance the chances of this event occurrence. These conditions are related to the Policy Window concept, that represents a period during which the political inertia is disrupted and decision makers have the circumstances to undertake a FPR process. Objective: find and outline the conjectural conditions and variables that increase the chances of occurrence of a FPR. Methods: it will be used qualitative and quantitative methodological tools. In the second chapter, a survival model (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) analyses the effect variables related to the Policy Window concept over the risks of happening a FPR, defined as the most extreme changes of behavior in United Nations General Assembly roll-call votes. In the third chapter, a historical qualitative analysis is undertaken focusing exclusively on the most radical cases of FPR to develop explanatory typologies in order to identify causal conjunctures and common patters that lead to the outcome. Results: we identified that regime and political leader changes, in the national context, and military interventions by foreign powers enhance the risks of FPR occurrence; additionally, high political polarization combined with regime change, political crisis with international forces involvement, processes of international isolation with economic sanctions enforcement, and economic crises with political actors questioning the current economic model might be combined, configuring causal paths to a FPR. Conclusion: despite the importance of main political actors interest in implementing a FPR process, we identified that specific conjunctures and events raise the risks of a positive outcome. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 11/22967-5 - Continuity and change in foreign policy: comparing South American cases |
| Grantee: | Italo Beltrão Sposito |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |