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| Author(s): |
Sara Lopes de Moraes
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2023-10-02 |
| Examining board members: |
Ligia Vizeu Barrozo;
Gabriela Marques di Giulio;
Nelson da Cruz Gouveia;
João Viljoen de Vasconcelos
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| Advisor: | Ligia Vizeu Barrozo; Ricardo Jorge Meireles Almendra |
| Abstract | |
The impact of extreme air temperature events on health has become one of the leading public health concerns of the 21st century. Studies indicate that heatwaves and cold spells represent significant risk factor as it contributes directly and indirectly to increased mortality, especially among people aged 65 or older living in megacities. São Paulo\'s ageing population is growing, presenting significant socioeconomic and environmental inequalities that may contribute to increased mortality related to extreme air temperature events. Therefore, this thesis aims to evaluate and estimate the relationship between extreme air temperature events (heatwaves and cold spells) and mortality among people aged 65 or over living in São Paulo, considering the socioeconomic context and Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects. In order to reach our goal, we used secondary data from multiple sources and scales of analysis, including daily average air temperature data, relative humidity, air pollution, deaths, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. We used epidemiological time-series (Distributed Lag Models) and spatial models and calculated the attributable mortality through a health impact assessment. To estimate the mortality attributed to heat and the UHI, we quantified the UHI intensity using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate air temperature at the height of 2 m with a resolution of 1 km x 1 km for \'Urban\' and \'Rural\' scenarios. Additionally, we considered the responsible persons\' monthly average income in three analysis classes: low-income, middle-class, and high-income. The first findings of this thesis indicate a statistically significant association between cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular and respiratory) and extreme air temperature events (cold and heat). It is essential to highlight that the risk of mortality increases among individuals aged 65 and over during more intense and prolonged heatwaves. Studies show that different risk factors are associated with high mortality risk during cold spells and heatwaves. Therefore, we verified whether the built environment (UHI) and income levels at the intra-urban scale play an important role in this high risk of mortality found during the occurrence of cold spells and heatwaves in São Paulo. Consequently, our estimates suggest that deaths associated with heat during a specific heatwave (occurring between January 26 and February 9, 2014) may be attributed to the intensity of the UHI. In addition, our estimates indicate low-income areas (1.09; CI: 1.07 - 1.11) had a higher mortality risk than high-income areas (1.06; CI: 1.02 - 1.10). Our findings could contribute to formulating and implementing public health policy measures to reduce the negative impacts of extreme air temperature events on the health of São Paulo\'s population and the susceptibility of its residents (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 18/25462-0 - Extreme events of air temperature and their relation with the mortality of elderly people in the city of São Paulo |
| Grantee: | Sara Lopes de Moraes |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |