Elderly mortality related to heat waves in the capitals of Brazil: an analysis in the present and future projections in the climate change scenarios

• Grant number: 19/09879-1
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (Direct)
• Effective date (Start): September 01, 2019
• Effective date (End): February 28, 2022
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Epidemiology
• Principal researcher: Fábio Luiz Teixeira Gonçalves
• Grantee: Fernanda Rodrigues Diniz
• Home Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 16/18438-0 - São Paulo Metropolitan Area, jointly tracking climate change and air quality - METROCLIMA-MASP, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

There is no longer any doubt that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly due to anthropogenic emissions. Climate change can affect health in different ways, by increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, for example. Brazil is a country presenting in recent years an increase in the number of days with heat waves. Many different States present that, affecting mainly the health of the most sensitive population, as is the case of the elderly. The elderly are more vulnerable to heat due to dysfunctional thermoregulatory mechanisms, detoxification, medications and diseases that involve systems that regulate body temperature, such as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Projections show that in the future there will be an increase in the elderly population in urban areas in Brazil, as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves due to climate change. In this context, this research project aims to quantify the mortality of elderly people due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases related to heat waves during hot periods (September to March) and cold/dry periods (April to August) for the capitals of the 26 Brazilian States and in the Federal District during present time (1996 to 2016) and with projections, considering scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8,5 of the climatic changes for the near future (2030 to 2050) and distant future (2079 to 2099). In future projections, another important aspect will be the quantification of mortality for the hypotheses of non-adaptation and adaptation to the future climate. Once high mortality values are found for future projections, this information can be used in public policy decision-making so that preventive and adaptive measures can be implemented to avoid increasing mortality in the coming years. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

DINIZ, FERNANDA RODRIGUES; GONCALVES, FABIO LUIZ TEIXEIRA; SHERIDAN, SCOTT. Heat Wave and Elderly Mortality: Historical Analysis and Future Projection for Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo, Brazil. ATMOSPHERE, v. 11, n. 9 SEP 2020. Web of Science Citations: 0.