Impacts of climate change in laying hen eggs production: climatic viability analysis for scenes planned by IPCC

• Grant number: 16/25464-8
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Effective date (Start): May 01, 2017
• Effective date (End): February 28, 2018
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agricultural Engineering - Rural Buildings and Ambience
• Cooperation agreement: Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)
• Principal researcher: Danilo Florentino Pereira
• Grantee: Daniel Sá Freire Lamarca
• Home Institution: Faculdade de Ciências e Engenharia. Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Tupã. Tupã , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The surface temperature of the planet is heating up over the years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in turn, brings together researchers from different countries and areas of action, aiming to generate and organize information by formulating future scenarios of temperature variation and precipitation, so that it is possible to project the possible socioeconomic impacts And environmental impacts of climate change. Agriculture is one of the sectors most influenced by climatic variations (temperature and precipitation), since the agricultural production and animal production processes, for each species, have ideal climate bands to obtain adequate levels of production. In the production of egg laying hens, it is found that directly affects the production system, with emphasis on the mortality of birds by heat waves. Considering the context presented, the objective of this research is to carry out a climatic feasibility analysis for egg production of laying hens in the municipality of Bastos-SP, considering the impact generated by the heat wave variable on bird mortality, based on the climatic scenarios predicted by IPCC of the AR5 report. The scenarios will be simulated using a fuzzy system, which will have as input variables the duration in days and the intensity of the heat waves and as the only variable of exit the mortality. It is expected that the survey will indicate approximately, from the IPCC forecasts, when producers in the municipality of Bastos-SP who do not have a climate system will have the viability of their production system compromised. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

LAMARCA, D. S. F.; PEREIRA, D. F.; MAGALHAES, M. M.; SALGADO, D. D. Climate Change in Layer Poultry Farming: Impact of Heat Waves in Region of Bastos, Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Poultry Science, v. 20, n. 4, p. 657-664, OCT-DEC 2018. Web of Science Citations: 2.

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

LAMARCA, Daniel Sá Freire. Impacto de ondas de calor na produção de ovos de poedeiras : sistema de previsão de mortalidade aplicado à cenários do IPCC. 2018. 152 f. Master's Dissertation - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho" Faculdade de Ciências e Engenharia..