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(Reference retrieved automatically from SciELO through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

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Author(s):
Patrícia Silva [1] ; Ana Bastos [2] ; Carlos C. DaCamara [3] ; Renata Libonati [4]
Total Authors: 4
Affiliation:
[1] Universidade de Lisboa. Faculdade de Ciências. Instituto Dom Luiz - Portugal
[2] Universite Paris-Saclay. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement - França
[3] Universidade de Lisboa. Faculdade de Ciências. Instituto Dom Luiz - Portugal
[4] Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Geociências. Departamento de Meteorologia - Brasil
Total Affiliations: 4
Document type: Journal article
Source: Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia; v. 31, n. 3, p. 288-297, 2016-09-00.
Abstract

Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 15/01389-4 - Brazilian System Fire-Land-Atmosphere (BrFLAS)
Grantee:Alberto Waingort Setzer
Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants